Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | LSU -4.5 | Same |
| Total | 52.5 | 52.4 |
| Moneyline | ALA +145 LSU -175 | ALA +162 LSU -162 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : LSU by 4.5, total 52.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why LSU can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, LSU +17.0, Alabama -2.7.
- Home field: LSU play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: LSU rank 28th (3.8%), Alabama 103rd (7.0%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where LSU can take advantage. Their pass rush (1st of 138) meets the Alabama pass protection (103rd), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their passing game (38th of 138) meets the Alabama pass defense (123rd): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: Off the edge, Princewill Umanmielen (LSU: 8 sacks) has the edge on Fatutoa Henry (Alabama: 3), facing the Alabama pass protection (103rd of 138); in the backfield, Dilin Jones (LSU: 82 rushing yards a game, 4.4 a carry) has the edge on Daniel Hill (Alabama: 42, 4.7), facing the Alabama run defense (18th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: LSU 62% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: LSU win 6,180 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why LSU may not
- Interception margin per game: Alabama rank 5th (+0.9), LSU 108th (-0.4) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, LSU lose by 15 or more.
- History: Alabama won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters turn over fast in college, so this says little).
- Elo rating: worth about 0.7 points to Alabama in our ratings.
- Team matchup: Alabama have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean LSU on paper, but quarterback Keelon Russell (2,077 yards, 13 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Alabama win 3,820 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| ALA | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 6-2 |
| 38.2 12 | Points per game | 40.1 7 |
| 21.2 45 | Points allowed | 16.0 16 |
| 6.6 36 | Yards per play | 6.6 40 |
| 6.1 89 | Yards per play allowed | 4.9 12 |
| +0.9 5 | Interception margin/game | -0.4 108 |
| 9.5% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 12.2% 1 |
| 1939 10 | Elo rating | 1943 8 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 11 | LSU 9 @ Alabama 20 | ALA |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 11 | Alabama 42 @ LSU 13 | ALA |
| 2023-11-04 | 2023 Wk 10 | LSU 28 @ Alabama 42 | ALA |
| 2022-11-05 | 2022 Wk 10 | Alabama 31 @ LSU 32 | LSU |
| 2021-11-06 | 2021 Wk 10 | LSU 14 @ Alabama 20 | ALA |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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