Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UGA -3 | Same |
| Total | 56.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | UGA -142 MISS +120 | UGA -138 MISS +138 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Georgia by 3, total 56.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Georgia can win
- Elo rating: worth about 3.1 points to Georgia in our ratings.
- Georgia's passing game (8.8 yards, 13th in FBS) faces the Ole Miss defense, which ranks 61st against it.
- Point differential per game: Georgia rank 3rd (+26.1), Ole Miss 31st (+13.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Georgia can take advantage. Their big-play offense (10th of 138) meets the Ole Miss defense against big plays (131st), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their running game (4th of 138) meets the Ole Miss run defense (72nd): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Gunner Stockton (Georgia: 9.9 yards per attempt, 14 TD, 4 INT) has the edge on Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss: 8.6, 16 TD, 8 INT).
- The betting market agrees: Georgia 57% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Georgia win 5,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Georgia may not
- Home field: Ole Miss play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Ole Miss +17.0, Georgia +6.3.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Georgia lose by 17 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Ole Miss rank 4th (1.7%), Georgia 35th (4.0%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: a strength Georgia may not get to use. Their pass rush (24th of 138) meets the Ole Miss pass protection (4th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Deuce Alexander (Ole Miss: 84 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Craig Dandridge (Georgia: 44, 0 TD), facing the Georgia pass defense (21st of 138).
- Upset odds: Ole Miss win 4,210 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| UGA | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 6-2 |
| 41.0 4 | Points per game | 37.1 17 |
| 14.9 11 | Points allowed | 24.0 63 |
| 7.7 8 | Yards per play | 6.7 32 |
| 4.9 13 | Yards per play allowed | 5.7 65 |
| +0.2 42 | Interception margin/game | -0.2 96 |
| 8.2% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 5.3% 85 |
| 2050 3 | Elo rating | 1983 6 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 2025 Bowl/playoff | Ole Miss 39 @ Georgia 34 | MISS |
| 2025-10-18 | 2025 Wk 8 | Ole Miss 35 @ Georgia 43 | UGA |
| 2024-11-09 | 2024 Wk 11 | Georgia 10 @ Ole Miss 28 | MISS |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 11 | Ole Miss 17 @ Georgia 52 | UGA |
| 2016-09-24 | 2016 Wk 4 | Georgia 14 @ Ole Miss 45 | MISS |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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