- Vanderbilt SEC 0-5, 16th · 3-5 overall · L5
- Mississippi State SEC 2-4, 13th · 4-4 overall · L4
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSST -2.5 | Same |
| Total | 48.5 | 48.9 |
| Moneyline | VAN +110 MSST -130 | VAN +133 MSST -133 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Mississippi State by 2.5, total 48.5.
Your pick
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Our number.
Advantages Why Mississippi State can win
- Home field: Mississippi State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Plays of 20+ yards per game: Mississippi State rank 58th (4.6), Vanderbilt 117th (3.2) of 138 FBS teams.
- History: Mississippi State won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters turn over fast in college, so this says little).
- Team matchup: where Mississippi State can take advantage. Their pass rush (43rd of 138) meets the Vanderbilt pass protection (84th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their running game (49th of 138) meets the Vanderbilt run defense (87th): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Fluff Bothwell (Mississippi State: 71 rushing yards a game, 5.4 a carry) has the edge on Sedrick Alexander (Vanderbilt: 34, 4.3), facing the Vanderbilt run defense (87th of 138); off the edge, Will Whitson (Mississippi State: 3 sacks) has the edge on C.J. Heard (Vanderbilt: 2), facing the Vanderbilt pass protection (84th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: Mississippi State 56% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Mississippi State win 5,720 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Mississippi State may not
- Elo rating: worth about 2.0 points to Vanderbilt in our ratings.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.5 points to Vanderbilt in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Mississippi State lose by 17 or more.
- Weak spot: Mississippi State rank 119th of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.6%).
- Team matchup: where Vanderbilt can push back. Their passing game (26th of 138) meets the Mississippi State pass defense (114th), so look for them to throw early and often. And their pass rush (79th of 138) meets the Mississippi State pass protection (119th): a chance to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Jared Curtis (Vanderbilt: 8.9 yards per attempt, 8 TD, 8 INT) has the edge on Parker Puckett (Mississippi State: 6.0, 0 TD, 2 INT; filling in for Kamario Taylor, missed the last game).
- Upset odds: Vanderbilt win 4,280 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| VAN | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 4-4 |
| 22.8 105 | Points per game | 26.6 82 |
| 30.2 113 | Points allowed | 28.1 103 |
| 6.4 52 | Yards per play | 6.0 78 |
| 5.6 59 | Yards per play allowed | 6.2 95 |
| -0.5 116 | Interception margin/game | -0.5 116 |
| 5.5% 79 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 43 |
| 1542 59 | Elo rating | 1506 62 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-23 | 2021 Wk 8 | Mississippi State 45 @ Vanderbilt 6 | MSST |
| 2020-11-07 | 2020 Wk 10 | Vanderbilt 17 @ Mississippi State 24 | MSST |
| 2014-11-23 | 2014 Wk 13 | Vanderbilt 0 @ Mississippi State 51 | MSST |
| 2009-09-19 | 2009 Wk 3 | Mississippi State 15 @ Vanderbilt 3 | MSST |
| 2008-10-11 | 2008 Wk 7 | Vanderbilt 14 @ Mississippi State 17 | MSST |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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