Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | TEX -3 | Same |
| Total | 45.5 | 45.6 |
| Moneyline | TEX -162 MIZ +136 | TEX -143 MIZ +143 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Texas by 3, total 45.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Texas can win
- Elo rating: worth about 6.0 points to Texas in our ratings.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.4 points to Texas in our ratings.
- History: Texas won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters turn over fast in college, so this says little).
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Texas. The nearest thing to one: their passing game (49th of 138) meets the Missouri pass defense (44th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
- Star matchup: Off the edge, Colin Simmons (Texas: 7 sacks) has the edge on Daeden Hopkins (Missouri: 3), facing the Missouri pass protection (12th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: Texas 58% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Texas win 5,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Texas may not
- Home field: Missouri play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Missouri rank 12th (2.7%), Texas 131st (10.1%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Interception margin per game: Missouri rank 13th (+0.6), Texas 86th (-0.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Plays of 20+ yards per game: Missouri rank 27th (5.2), Texas 106th (3.5) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Missouri can push back. Their pass rush (60th of 138) meets the Texas pass protection (131st), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Jamal Roberts (Missouri: 122 rushing yards a game, 5.4 a carry) has the edge on Raleek Brown (Texas: 55, 4.8), facing the Texas run defense (15th of 138); at receiver, Cayden Lee (Missouri: 94 receiving yards a game, 4 TD) has the edge on Ryan Wingo (Texas: 54, 0 TD), facing the Texas pass defense (5th of 138).
- Upset odds: Missouri win 4,110 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| TEX | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 6-2 |
| 30.8 53 | Points per game | 31.5 51 |
| 17.1 19 | Points allowed | 18.4 23 |
| 6.0 82 | Yards per play | 6.6 39 |
| 4.5 3 | Yards per play allowed | 5.3 28 |
| -0.1 86 | Interception margin/game | +0.6 13 |
| 8.2% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 6.4% 60 |
| 1951 7 | Elo rating | 1801 17 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-11-12 | 2011 Wk 11 | Texas 5 @ Missouri 17 | MIZ |
| 2009-10-25 | 2009 Wk 8 | Texas 41 @ Missouri 7 | TEX |
| 2008-10-19 | 2008 Wk 8 | Missouri 31 @ Texas 56 | TEX |
| 2005-10-01 | 2005 Wk 5 | Texas 51 @ Missouri 20 | TEX |
| 2004-10-16 | 2004 Wk 8 | Missouri 20 @ Texas 28 | TEX |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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