Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | TENN -6.25 | TENN -6.2 |
| Total | 51.5 | 51.6 |
| Moneyline | UK +164 TENN -198 | UK +198 TENN -198 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Tennessee by 6.25, total 51.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Tennessee can win
- Elo rating: worth about 5.9 points to Tennessee in our ratings.
- Home field: Tennessee play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.1 points to Tennessee in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where Tennessee can take advantage. Their pass rush (5th of 138) meets the Kentucky pass protection (71st), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their passing game (57th of 138) meets the Kentucky pass defense (88th): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, DeSean Bishop (Tennessee: 114 rushing yards a game, 5.6 a carry) has the edge on CJ Baxter Jr. (Kentucky: 58, 5.5), facing the Kentucky run defense (45th of 138); off the edge, Mariyon Dye (Tennessee: 5 sacks) has the edge on Grant Godfrey (Kentucky: 2), facing the Kentucky pass protection (71st of 138).
- Simulation: Tennessee win 6,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Tennessee 65% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Tennessee may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Tennessee lose by 13 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Kentucky rank 71st (5.4%), Tennessee 127th (9.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: Tennessee rank 127th of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.5%).
- Weak spot: Tennessee rank 99th of 138 in run defense, yards per carry allowed (5.3).
- Team matchup: where Kentucky can push back. Their pass rush (36th of 138) meets the Tennessee pass protection (127th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their running game (43rd of 138) meets the Tennessee run defense (99th): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Tennessee on paper, but quarterback Kenny Minchey (1,759 yards, 13 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Kentucky win 3,350 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| UK | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 6-2 |
| 32.9 40 | Points per game | 32.2 46 |
| 24.8 70 | Points allowed | 16.2 17 |
| 5.8 96 | Yards per play | 6.4 49 |
| 6.0 85 | Yards per play allowed | 4.9 14 |
| +1.0 3 | Interception margin/game | +0.5 23 |
| 7.6% 36 | Sacks per dropback | 10.9% 5 |
| 1634 43 | Elo rating | 1829 15 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | 2025 Wk 9 | Tennessee 56 @ Kentucky 34 | TENN |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 Wk 10 | Kentucky 18 @ Tennessee 28 | TENN |
| 2023-10-28 | 2023 Wk 9 | Tennessee 33 @ Kentucky 27 | TENN |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022 Wk 9 | Kentucky 6 @ Tennessee 44 | TENN |
| 2021-11-06 | 2021 Wk 10 | Tennessee 45 @ Kentucky 42 | TENN |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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