Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTAH -5.5 | Same |
| Total | 45.5 | 45.8 |
| Moneyline | BYU +150 UTAH -180 | BYU +184 UTAH -184 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Utah by 5.5, total 45.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Utah can win
- Elo rating: worth about 7.3 points to Utah in our ratings.
- Home field: Utah play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Utah +11.7, BYU +1.0.
- Team matchup: where Utah can take advantage. Their passing game (12th of 138) meets the BYU pass defense (35th), so look for them to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Wayshawn Parker (Utah: 89 rushing yards a game, 6.7 a carry) has the edge on LJ Martin (BYU: 43, 7.8), facing the BYU run defense (24th of 138); at quarterback, Devon Dampier (Utah: 9.4 yards per attempt, 13 TD, 6 INT) has the edge on Bear Bachmeier (BYU: 8.5, 12 TD, 4 INT).
- Simulation: Utah win 6,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Utah 63% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Utah may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Utah lose by 14 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: BYU rank 64th (6.2%), Utah 99th (4.7%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: Utah rank 99th of 138 in pass rush, sacks per dropback (4.7%).
- Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.
- Team matchup: a strength Utah may not get to use. Their running game (5th of 138) meets the BYU run defense (24th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: Off the edge, Tausili Akana (BYU: 3 sacks) has the edge on Elijah Elliss (Utah: 2), facing the Utah pass protection (32nd of 138); at receiver, Legend Glasker (BYU: 73 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Braden Pegan (Utah: 63, 6 TD), facing the Utah pass defense (27th of 138).
- Upset odds: BYU win 3,520 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| BYU | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 8-0 |
| 32.4 44 | Points per game | 38.9 11 |
| 18.8 25 | Points allowed | 15.9 15 |
| 6.2 61 | Yards per play | 7.6 9 |
| 5.2 21 | Yards per play allowed | 5.3 26 |
| +0.1 58 | Interception margin/game | +0.2 42 |
| 6.2% 64 | Sacks per dropback | 4.7% 99 |
| 1708 33 | Elo rating | 1943 8 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 8 | Utah 21 @ BYU 24 | BYU |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 11 | BYU 22 @ Utah 21 | BYU |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 2 | Utah 17 @ BYU 26 | BYU |
| 2019-08-30 | 2019 Wk 1 | Utah 30 @ BYU 12 | UTAH |
| 2018-11-25 | 2018 Wk 13 | BYU 27 @ Utah 35 | UTAH |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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