Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | KU -3 | Same |
| Total | 47.5 | 47.7 |
| Moneyline | UCF +114 KU -135 | UCF +143 KU -143 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Kansas by 3, total 47.5.
Your pick
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Our number.
Advantages Why Kansas can win
- Elo rating: worth about 6.0 points to Kansas in our ratings.
- Home field: Kansas play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Travel: UCF come about 1,732 km (1,075 miles) for this one.
- Team matchup: where Kansas can take advantage. Their big-play offense (22nd of 138) meets the UCF defense against big plays (110th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Cole Ballard (Kansas: 8.9 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 1 INT; filling in for Isaiah Marshall, missed the last game) has the edge on Keyone Jenkins (UCF: 7.5, 9 TD, 4 INT).
- The betting market agrees: Kansas 57% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Kansas win 5,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Kansas may not
- Interception margin per game: UCF rank 58th (+0.1), Kansas 132nd (-0.9) of 138 FBS teams.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.1 points to UCF in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Kansas lose by 17 or more.
- Offense, yards per play: UCF rank 57th (6.3), Kansas 93rd (5.8) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where UCF can push back. Their passing game (54th of 138) meets the Kansas pass defense (83rd), so look for them to throw early and often. And their running game (70th of 138) meets the Kansas run defense (95th): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Kansas on paper, but quarterback Keyone Jenkins (1,200 yards, 9 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: UCF win 4,120 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| UCF | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 3-5 |
| 29.8 57 | Points per game | 29.1 63 |
| 25.2 74 | Points allowed | 23.8 61 |
| 6.3 57 | Yards per play | 5.8 93 |
| 5.3 35 | Yards per play allowed | 6.1 87 |
| +0.1 58 | Interception margin/game | -0.9 132 |
| 5.2% 89 | Sacks per dropback | 5.3% 88 |
| 1391 89 | Elo rating | 1589 49 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | 2025 Wk 6 | Kansas 27 @ UCF 20 | KU |
| 2023-10-07 | 2023 Wk 6 | UCF 22 @ Kansas 51 | KU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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