- Cincinnati Big 12 2-3, 11th · 5-3 overall · L1
- Houston AP #17 · Big 12 3-2, 4th · 6-2 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -10.5 | Same |
| Total | 62 | 61.4 |
| Moneyline | CIN +320 HOU -410 | CIN +301 HOU -301 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Houston by 10.5, total 62.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Houston can win
- Elo rating: worth about 3.7 points to Houston in our ratings.
- Home field: Houston play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Houston +4.7, Cincinnati -4.7.
- Team matchup: where Houston can take advantage. Their big-play offense (46th of 138) meets the Cincinnati defense against big plays (110th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their passing game (60th of 138) meets the Cincinnati pass defense (116th): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Amare Thomas (Houston: 78 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on JaVonnie Gibson (Cincinnati: 58, 0 TD), facing the Cincinnati pass defense (116th of 138).
- Simulation: Houston win 7,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Houston 77% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Houston may not
- Cincinnati's passing game (7.2 yards, 69th in FBS) faces the Houston defense, which ranks 128th against it.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.1 points to Cincinnati in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Houston lose by 9 or more.
- History: Cincinnati won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters turn over fast in college, so this says little).
- Team matchup: where Cincinnati can push back. Their big-play offense (24th of 138) meets the Houston defense against big plays (118th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their running game (2nd of 138) meets the Houston run defense (63rd): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Cole Tabb (Cincinnati: 90 rushing yards a game, 9.4 a carry) has the edge on Makhi Hughes (Houston: 65, 4.4), facing the Houston run defense (63rd of 138).
- Upset odds: Cincinnati win 2,490 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
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Side by side
| CIN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 6-2 |
| 34.1 31 | Points per game | 36.0 20 |
| 29.2 107 | Points allowed | 21.0 40 |
| 7.0 20 | Yards per play | 6.4 50 |
| 6.7 116 | Yards per play allowed | 7.0 127 |
| +0.5 23 | Interception margin/game | +0.8 9 |
| 5.4% 84 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 77 |
| 1485 68 | Elo rating | 1615 46 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | 2024 Wk 4 | Houston 0 @ Cincinnati 34 | CIN |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 11 | Cincinnati 24 @ Houston 14 | CIN |
| 2021-12-04 | 2021 Wk 14 | Houston 20 @ Cincinnati 35 | CIN |
| 2020-11-07 | 2020 Wk 10 | Houston 10 @ Cincinnati 38 | CIN |
| 2019-10-12 | 2019 Wk 7 | Cincinnati 38 @ Houston 23 | CIN |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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