- Colorado Big 12 1-4, 14th · 3-5 overall · W1
- Arizona State Big 12 2-3, 12th · 4-4 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | ASU -3.5 | Same |
| Total | 49 | Same |
| Moneyline | COLO +130 ASU -155 | COLO +143 ASU -143 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Arizona State by 3.5, total 49.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Arizona State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 5.8 points to Arizona State in our ratings.
- Home field: Arizona State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Point differential per game: Arizona State rank 89th (+0.0), Colorado 123rd (-8.4) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Arizona State can take advantage. Their big-play offense (55th of 138) meets the Colorado defense against big plays (130th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Cardae Mack (Arizona State: 65 rushing yards a game, 6.7 a carry) has the edge on Jaquail Smith (Colorado: 45, 5.0), facing the Colorado run defense (42nd of 138).
- The betting market agrees: Arizona State 60% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Arizona State win 5,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Arizona State may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Arizona State lose by 16 or more.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 0.9 points to Colorado in our ratings.
- Weak spot: Arizona State rank 127th of 138 in passing, yards per dropback (5.5).
- Weak spot: Arizona State rank 115th of 138 in offense, yards per play (5.6).
- Team matchup: where Colorado can push back. Their pass rush (20th of 138) meets the Arizona State pass protection (86th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Isaac Wilson (Colorado: 8.2 yards per attempt, 7 TD, 6 INT) has the edge on Mikey Keene (Arizona State: 7.3, 1 TD, 0 INT; filling in for Cutter Boley, missed the last game); off the edge, Lamont Lester Jr. (Colorado: 5 sacks) has the edge on Jalen Thompson (Arizona State: 4), facing the Arizona State pass protection (86th of 138).
- Upset odds: Colorado win 4,110 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| COLO | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 4-4 |
| 21.0 117 | Points per game | 29.5 60 |
| 29.4 108 | Points allowed | 29.5 109 |
| 5.6 114 | Yards per play | 5.6 115 |
| 6.3 98 | Yards per play allowed | 6.3 99 |
| -0.6 128 | Interception margin/game | +0.0 73 |
| 8.5% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 55 |
| 1278 112 | Elo rating | 1471 73 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 13 | Arizona State 42 @ Colorado 17 | ASU |
| 2023-10-07 | 2023 Wk 6 | Colorado 27 @ Arizona State 24 | COLO |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022 Wk 9 | Arizona State 42 @ Colorado 34 | ASU |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 4 | Colorado 13 @ Arizona State 35 | ASU |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 4 | Colorado 34 @ Arizona State 31 | COLO |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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