ISU

Iowa State @ Baylor

College football 2026 · Week 10 · Sat Nov 7, 12:00 AM ET · McLane Stadium

BAY

Iowa State Big 12 2-3, 9th · 4-4 overall · W1
Baylor Big 12 3-2, 6th · 5-3 overall · W1

Rankings and standings

Game day

Kickoff

Availability 10:00 PM ET

Our pick

BAYBaylor Bears

75% to win

Model

ISU 25%BAY 75%

Market

ISU 26%BAY 74%

Within 0 pts of the market. Not a promise: a 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

	Market	AZMango
Spread	BAY -9.75	BAY -9.8
Total	51.5	51.7
Moneyline	ISU +270 BAY -340	ISU +294 BAY -294 fair

Line: Nov 1, 2:51 PM ET, sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.

10,000 simulated games

BAY 30, ISU 20Typical score

ISU by 8 to BAY by 318 in 10 games

49%BAY covers -9.75

47%Over 51.5

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Line movement

Logged Nov 1, 2:51 PM ET: Baylor by 9.75, total 51.5.

What changed

Nothing since our first call (Nov 1, 2:51 PM ET).

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

Your own read: no change Iowa StateBaylor

25%Iowa State

75%Baylor

Our number.

Advantages Why Baylor can win

Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Baylor +6.7, Iowa State -16.0.
Elo rating: worth about 4.4 points to Baylor in our ratings.
Point differential per game: Baylor rank 20th (+15.4), Iowa State 78th (+1.8) of 138 FBS teams.
Team matchup: where Baylor can take advantage. Their big-play offense (10th of 138) meets the Iowa State defense against big plays (98th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their pass rush (2nd of 138) meets the Iowa State pass protection (79th): a chance to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
Star matchup: At receiver, Gavin Freeman (Baylor: 101 receiving yards a game, 2 TD) has the edge on Jamal Polite Jr. (Iowa State: 36, 0 TD), facing the Iowa State pass defense (101st of 138); off the edge, Daniel Cobbs (Baylor: 3 sacks) has the edge on Sullivan Schlimgen (Iowa State: 2; filling in for Isaac Terrell, doubtful, not on the team's current roster), facing the Iowa State pass protection (79th of 138).
Simulation: Baylor win 7,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
The betting market agrees: Baylor 74% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.

Disadvantages Why Baylor may not

Offense, yards per play: Iowa State rank 68th (6.1), Baylor 110th (5.6) of 138 FBS teams.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Baylor lose by 8 or more.
Weak spot: Baylor rank 110th of 138 in offense, yards per play (5.6).
Weak spot: Baylor rank 108th of 138 in passing, yards per dropback (6.4).
Team matchup: Iowa State have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
Star matchup: In the backfield, Aiden Flora (Iowa State: 117 rushing yards a game, 7.2 a carry) has the edge on Dawson Pendergrass (Baylor: 42, 3.6), facing the Baylor run defense (19th of 138); at quarterback, Jaylen Raynor (Iowa State: 8.5 yards per attempt, 10 TD, 5 INT) has the edge on D.J. Lagway (Baylor: 7.4, 12 TD, 4 INT).
Upset odds: Iowa State win 2,540 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

Loading…

AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

Loading the latest headlines...

Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Side by side

ISU		BAY
4-4	Record	5-3
29.0 65	Points per game	30.6 54
27.2 97	Points allowed	15.2 12
6.1 68	Yards per play	5.6 110
6.5 109	Yards per play allowed	5.3 27
-0.2 96	Interception margin/game	+0.2 42
4.1% 118	Sacks per dropback	11.5% 2
1550 58	Elo rating	1700 34

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 5 meetings

Date	Game	Score	Winner
2024-10-05	2024 Wk 6	Baylor 21 @ Iowa State 43	ISU
2023-10-28	2023 Wk 9	Iowa State 30 @ Baylor 18	ISU
2022-09-24	2022 Wk 4	Baylor 31 @ Iowa State 24	BAY
2021-09-25	2021 Wk 4	Iowa State 29 @ Baylor 31	BAY
2020-11-08	2020 Wk 10	Baylor 31 @ Iowa State 38	ISU

Based on market line + adjustments. How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

Player matchups

ISU

Jaylen Raynor QB

111/168, 1,428 yds, 10 TD, 5 INT

vs pass defense ranked 45 of 138

ISU

Aiden Flora RUSH

131 carries, 937 yds (7.2 a carry), 8 TD

vs run defense ranked 19 of 138

ISU

Jamal Polite Jr. REC

14 catches, 286 yds, 0 TD

vs a defense ranked 50 of 138 at stopping big plays

ISU

Sullivan Schlimgen (filling in for Isaac Terrell: doubtful, not on the team's current roster) DEF

2 sacks

vs pass protection ranked 52 of 138

BAY

D.J. Lagway QB

128/227, 1,681 yds, 12 TD, 4 INT

vs pass defense ranked 101 of 138

BAY

Dawson Pendergrass RUSH

94 carries, 339 yds (3.6 a carry), 2 TD

vs run defense ranked 108 of 138

BAY

Gavin Freeman REC

63 catches, 808 yds, 2 TD

vs a defense ranked 98 of 138 at stopping big plays

BAY

Daniel Cobbs DEF

3 sacks

vs pass protection ranked 79 of 138

Season totals from play-by-play (2026 season).

Who's playing?

Iowa State

Doubtful Isaac Terrell: not on the team's current roster (ESPN team rosters, 2026-11-02)

Baylor

Sat out Louis Brown: missed the last game (box scores, 2026-10-30)

How we check

College football has no league-wide injury report, so we read ESPN and CBS Sports headlines and check who played in each team's last game. The ACC and Big 12 post availability reports about 2 hours before kickoff; late news can still arrive at kickoff. Checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players listed out or doubtful are never counted as a strength in the reasons; we name whoever fills in. Questionable players are marked "status unclear".

Last time they met

Iowa State beat Baylor 43-21 at home (week 6 of 2024).

Game chat

Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat