- Oklahoma State Big 12 3-2, 7th · 5-3 overall · L1
- Kansas State Big 12 1-4, 15th · 4-4 overall · L2
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | OKST -5.75 | OKST -5.8 |
| Total | 61.25 | 60.8 |
| Moneyline | OKST -185 KSU +154 | OKST -190 KSU +190 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Oklahoma State by 5.75, total 61.25.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Oklahoma State can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Oklahoma State +9.3, Kansas State -1.0.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.7 points to Oklahoma State in our ratings.
- Offense, yards per play: Oklahoma State rank 5th (7.8), Kansas State 43rd (6.5) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Oklahoma State can take advantage. Their running game (17th of 138) meets the Kansas State run defense (96th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their big-play offense (2nd of 138) meets the Kansas State defense against big plays (73rd): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Drew Mestemaker (Oklahoma State: 10.4 yards per attempt, 21 TD, 7 INT) has the edge on Jacob Knuth (Kansas State: 7.0, 1 TD, 0 INT; filling in for Avery Johnson, missed the last 2 games); in the backfield, Caleb Hawkins (Oklahoma State: 113 rushing yards a game, 5.4 a carry) has the edge on Rodney Fields Jr. (Kansas State: 61, 5.2), facing the Kansas State run defense (96th of 138).
- Simulation: Oklahoma State win 6,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Oklahoma State 64% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Oklahoma State may not
- Elo rating: worth about 3.5 points to Kansas State in our ratings.
- Home field: Kansas State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Oklahoma State lose by 14 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Kansas State rank 17th (8.7%), Oklahoma State 65th (6.2%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Kansas State can push back. Their big-play offense (46th of 138) meets the Oklahoma State defense against big plays (123rd), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their running game (12th of 138) meets the Oklahoma State run defense (44th): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: Off the edge, Jayden Bryant (Kansas State: 4 sacks) has the edge on Malik Charles (Oklahoma State: 3), facing the Oklahoma State pass protection (13th of 138).
- Upset odds: Kansas State win 3,450 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| OKST | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 4-4 |
| 41.1 3 | Points per game | 31.8 50 |
| 27.1 96 | Points allowed | 21.9 50 |
| 7.8 5 | Yards per play | 6.5 43 |
| 5.9 80 | Yards per play allowed | 5.5 44 |
| +0.1 58 | Interception margin/game | -0.1 86 |
| 6.2% 65 | Sacks per dropback | 8.7% 17 |
| 1464 75 | Elo rating | 1588 50 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | 2025 Wk 12 | Kansas State 14 @ Oklahoma State 6 | KSU |
| 2024-09-28 | 2024 Wk 5 | Oklahoma State 20 @ Kansas State 42 | KSU |
| 2023-10-06 | 2023 Wk 6 | Kansas State 21 @ Oklahoma State 29 | OKST |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022 Wk 9 | Oklahoma State 0 @ Kansas State 48 | KSU |
| 2021-09-25 | 2021 Wk 4 | Kansas State 20 @ Oklahoma State 31 | OKST |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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