Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | ARIZ -8.75 | ARIZ -8.8 |
| Total | 44.5 | 44.8 |
| Moneyline | TCU +260 ARIZ -325 | TCU +271 ARIZ -271 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Arizona by 8.75, total 44.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Arizona can win
- Elo rating: worth about 5.9 points to Arizona in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Arizona +16.3, TCU +4.3.
- Home field: Arizona play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Team matchup: where Arizona can take advantage. Their pass rush (16th of 138) meets the TCU pass protection (110th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Kedrick Reescano (Arizona: 39 rushing yards a game, 3.7 a carry) has the edge on Jon Denman (TCU: 20, 3.4; filling in for Jeremy Payne, missed the last 2 games), facing the TCU run defense (11th of 138); at receiver, Isaiah Mizell (Arizona: 84 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Kari Ashley (TCU: 70, 0 TD), facing the TCU pass defense (13th of 138).
- Simulation: Arizona win 7,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Arizona 73% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Arizona may not
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.0 points to TCU in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Arizona lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Arizona rank 125th of 138 in field goal percentage (56.2%).
- Interception margin per game: TCU rank 86th (-0.1), Arizona 116th (-0.5) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where TCU can push back. Their passing game (28th of 138) meets the Arizona pass defense (87th), so look for them to throw early and often. And their big-play offense (46th of 138) meets the Arizona defense against big plays (98th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Arizona on paper, but quarterback Jaden Craig (2,225 yards, 10 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: TCU win 2,700 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| TCU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 6-2 |
| 23.2 100 | Points per game | 34.9 29 |
| 14.1 8 | Points allowed | 18.9 27 |
| 6.4 47 | Yards per play | 6.4 44 |
| 4.7 6 | Yards per play allowed | 5.9 71 |
| -0.1 86 | Interception margin/game | -0.5 116 |
| 6.5% 59 | Sacks per dropback | 8.8% 16 |
| 1607 48 | Elo rating | 1801 17 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | 2024 Wk 13 | Arizona 28 @ TCU 49 | TCU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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