- West Virginia Big 12 2-3, 8th · 5-3 overall · W2
- Texas Tech AP #13 · Big 12 4-1, 3rd · 7-1 overall · W1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | TTU -16.75 | TTU -16.8 |
| Total | 63.5 | 63 |
| Moneyline | WVU +470 TTU -650 | WVU +606 TTU -606 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Texas Tech by 16.75, total 63.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Texas Tech can win
- Elo rating: worth about 15.2 points to Texas Tech in our ratings.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 4.0 points to Texas Tech in our ratings.
- Elo rating: Texas Tech rank 14th (1835), West Virginia 93rd (1368) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Texas Tech can take advantage. Their passing game (14th of 138) meets the West Virginia pass defense (126th), so look for them to throw early and often. And their big-play offense (39th of 138) meets the West Virginia defense against big plays (138th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Kenny Johnson (Texas Tech: 68 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Prince Strachan (West Virginia: 34, 0 TD; filling in for DJ Epps, missed the last game), facing the West Virginia pass defense (126th of 138); off the edge, Anthony Holmes Jr. (Texas Tech: 5 sacks) has the edge on Ashton Woods (West Virginia: 2), facing the West Virginia pass protection (124th of 138).
- Simulation: Texas Tech win 8,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Texas Tech 85% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Texas Tech may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texas Tech lose by 3 or more.
- Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.
- Availability: college football has no league-wide injury report. The ACC and Big 12 post availability reports about 2 hours before kickoff; other conferences may not.
- Small samples: teams play only 12 regular-season games, against very different schedules.
- Team matchup: where West Virginia can push back. Their passing game (2nd of 138) meets the Texas Tech pass defense (31st), so look for them to throw early and often. And their big-play offense (6th of 138) meets the Texas Tech defense against big plays (31st): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Michael Hawkins Jr. (West Virginia: 11.6 yards per attempt, 11 TD, 2 INT) has the edge on Will Hammond (Texas Tech: 9.6, 5 TD, 6 INT); in the backfield, Cam Cook (West Virginia: 116 rushing yards a game, 5.1 a carry) has the edge on J'Koby Williams (Texas Tech: 99, 8.0), facing the Texas Tech run defense (34th of 138).
- Upset odds: West Virginia win 1,420 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
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Side by side
| WVU | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 7-1 |
| 35.9 21 | Points per game | 35.6 23 |
| 32.2 126 | Points allowed | 21.1 42 |
| 6.8 29 | Yards per play | 7.1 17 |
| 7.1 130 | Yards per play allowed | 5.4 36 |
| +0.4 35 | Interception margin/game | +0.4 35 |
| 5.7% 76 | Sacks per dropback | 6.3% 61 |
| 1368 93 | Elo rating | 1835 14 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | 2025 Wk 14 | Texas Tech 49 @ West Virginia 0 | TTU |
| 2024-11-30 | 2024 Wk 14 | West Virginia 15 @ Texas Tech 52 | TTU |
| 2023-09-23 | 2023 Wk 4 | Texas Tech 13 @ West Virginia 20 | WVU |
| 2022-10-22 | 2022 Wk 8 | West Virginia 10 @ Texas Tech 48 | TTU |
| 2021-10-02 | 2021 Wk 5 | Texas Tech 23 @ West Virginia 20 | TTU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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