Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | DUKE -6 | Same |
| Total | 50.5 | 50.7 |
| Moneyline | DUKE -225 NCSU +185 | DUKE -193 NCSU +193 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Duke by 6, total 50.5.
Your pick
Picks lock at kickoff. Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.
Our number.
Advantages Why Duke can win
- Elo rating: worth about 9.4 points to Duke in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Duke +14.7, NC State -2.0.
- Point differential per game: Duke rank 13th (+17.8), NC State 60th (+6.2) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Duke can take advantage. Their big-play offense (10th of 138) meets the NC State defense against big plays (98th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their pass rush (8th of 138) meets the NC State pass protection (62nd): a chance to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Nate Sheppard (Duke: 116 rushing yards a game, 5.5 a carry) has the edge on Davion Gause (NC State: 42, 4.0; filling in for Jayden Scott, missed the last 3 games), facing the NC State run defense (92nd of 138); off the edge, Bradley Gompers (Duke: 4 sacks) has the edge on Elijah Satchell (NC State: 3), facing the NC State pass protection (62nd of 138).
- Simulation: Duke win 6,590 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Duke 66% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Duke may not
- Home field: NC State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Duke lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Duke rank 96th of 138 in interception margin per game (-0.2).
- Field goal percentage: NC State rank 24th (88.9%), Duke 72nd (73.3%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: NC State have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, CJ Bailey (NC State: 8.6 yards per attempt, 12 TD, 4 INT) has the edge on Walker Eget (Duke: 7.7, 8 TD, 3 INT).
- Upset odds: NC State win 3,410 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.
Loading…
Sign in or create a free account to ask.
AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Team news
Loading the latest headlines...
Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Side by side
| DUKE | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 4-4 |
| 32.0 48 | Points per game | 32.1 47 |
| 14.2 9 | Points allowed | 25.9 87 |
| 6.1 70 | Yards per play | 6.1 74 |
| 5.5 47 | Yards per play allowed | 6.4 104 |
| -0.2 96 | Interception margin/game | +0.0 73 |
| 9.5% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 119 |
| 1749 24 | Elo rating | 1499 63 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-20 | 2025 Wk 4 | NC State 33 @ Duke 45 | DUKE |
| 2024-11-09 | 2024 Wk 11 | Duke 29 @ NC State 19 | DUKE |
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 7 | NC State 3 @ Duke 24 | DUKE |
| 2020-10-17 | 2020 Wk 7 | Duke 20 @ NC State 31 | NCSU |
| 2013-11-09 | 2013 Wk 11 | NC State 20 @ Duke 38 | DUKE |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat