- Louisville ACC 4-2, 3rd · 5-3 overall · W3
- Georgia Tech ACC 1-4, 17th · 2-6 overall · L3
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | LOU -13.5 | Same |
| Total | 59.5 | 59.3 |
| Moneyline | LOU -600 GT +440 | LOU -436 GT +436 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Louisville by 13.5, total 59.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Louisville can win
- Elo rating: worth about 13.9 points to Louisville in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Louisville +20.0, Georgia Tech -18.3.
- Point differential per game: Louisville rank 30th (+13.4), Georgia Tech 114th (-6.0) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Louisville can take advantage. Their running game (1st of 138) meets the Georgia Tech run defense (119th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their big-play offense (1st of 138) meets the Georgia Tech defense against big plays (118th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Lincoln Kienholz (Louisville: 10.3 yards per attempt, 12 TD, 3 INT) has the edge on Alberto Mendoza (Georgia Tech: 7.9, 8 TD, 6 INT); in the backfield, Isaac Brown (Louisville: 88 rushing yards a game, 7.8 a carry) has the edge on Justice Haynes (Georgia Tech: 65, 4.8), facing the Georgia Tech run defense (119th of 138).
- Simulation: Louisville win 8,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Louisville 82% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Louisville may not
- Home field: Georgia Tech play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Louisville lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Louisville rank 119th of 138 in pass defense, yards per dropback allowed (8.3).
- Weak spot: Louisville rank 112th of 138 in field goal percentage (61.5%).
- Team matchup: where Georgia Tech can push back. Their big-play offense (46th of 138) meets the Louisville defense against big plays (104th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their passing game (91st of 138) meets the Louisville pass defense (119th): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Louisville on paper, but quarterback Alberto Mendoza (1,863 yards, 8 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Georgia Tech win 1,870 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
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Side by side
| LOU | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 2-6 |
| 40.4 5 | Points per game | 24.8 91 |
| 27.0 95 | Points allowed | 30.8 116 |
| 7.9 1 | Yards per play | 6.2 66 |
| 6.4 105 | Yards per play allowed | 6.5 108 |
| +0.6 13 | Interception margin/game | -0.8 129 |
| 6.8% 51 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 109 |
| 1751 23 | Elo rating | 1369 92 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | 2024 Wk 4 | Georgia Tech 19 @ Louisville 31 | LOU |
| 2023-09-01 | 2023 Wk 1 | Louisville 39 @ Georgia Tech 34 | LOU |
| 2020-10-09 | 2020 Wk 6 | Louisville 27 @ Georgia Tech 46 | GT |
| 2018-10-05 | 2018 Wk 6 | Georgia Tech 66 @ Louisville 31 | GT |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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