- Virginia Tech ACC 3-2, 5th · 6-2 overall · W2
- SMU ACC 4-2, 4th · 6-2 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | SMU -6.5 | Same |
| Total | 56 | 55.8 |
| Moneyline | VT +170 SMU -205 | VT +200 SMU -200 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : SMU by 6.5, total 56.
Your pick
Picks lock at kickoff. Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.
Our number.
Advantages Why SMU can win
- Elo rating: worth about 7.0 points to SMU in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, SMU +15.3, Virginia Tech +3.0.
- Home field: SMU play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Team matchup: where SMU can take advantage. Their pass rush (34th of 138) meets the Virginia Tech pass protection (117th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their big-play offense (7th of 138) meets the Virginia Tech defense against big plays (83rd): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Kendrick Raphael (SMU: 85 rushing yards a game, 5.2 a carry) has the edge on Que'Sean Brown (Virginia Tech: 4, 11.3), facing the Virginia Tech run defense (21st of 138); at quarterback, Kevin Jennings (SMU: 10.3 yards per attempt, 17 TD, 5 INT) has the edge on Ethan Grunkemeyer (Virginia Tech: 9.6, 15 TD, 2 INT).
- Simulation: SMU win 6,670 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: SMU 65% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why SMU may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, SMU lose by 13 or more.
- Interception margin per game: Virginia Tech rank 73rd (+0.0), SMU 108th (-0.4) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: SMU rank 112th of 138 in field goal percentage (61.5%).
- Weak spot: SMU rank 108th of 138 in interception margin per game (-0.4).
- Team matchup: Virginia Tech have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Que'Sean Brown (Virginia Tech: 90 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Yamir Knight (SMU: 59, 0 TD), facing the SMU pass defense (28th of 138); off the edge, Cortez Harris (Virginia Tech: 5 sacks) has the edge on Marques White (SMU: 4), facing the SMU pass protection (45th of 138).
- Upset odds: Virginia Tech win 3,330 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.
Loading…
Sign in or create a free account to ask.
AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Team news
Loading the latest headlines...
Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Side by side
| VT | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 6-2 |
| 35.0 27 | Points per game | 35.2 26 |
| 20.5 35 | Points allowed | 22.2 53 |
| 7.9 2 | Yards per play | 7.1 16 |
| 5.2 24 | Yards per play allowed | 5.3 32 |
| +0.0 73 | Interception margin/game | -0.4 108 |
| 7.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 34 |
| 1516 60 | Elo rating | 1743 28 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2004.
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat