Florida State @ Boston College
College football 2026 · Week 10 · · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
- Florida State ACC 1-4, 16th · 3-5 overall · L3
- Boston College ACC 2-3, 9th · 4-4 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | FSU -6.5 | Same |
| Total | 51.5 | 51.6 |
| Moneyline | FSU -238 BC +195 | FSU -204 BC +204 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Florida State by 6.5, total 51.5.
Your pick
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Our number.
Advantages Why Florida State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 8.5 points to Florida State in our ratings.
- Elo rating: Florida State rank 53rd (1576), Boston College 99th (1352) of 138 FBS teams.
- Offense, yards per play: Florida State rank 30th (6.8), Boston College 99th (5.7) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Florida State can take advantage. Their pass rush (31st of 138) meets the Boston College pass protection (118th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their passing game (27th of 138) meets the Boston College pass defense (96th): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Ashton Daniels (Florida State: 10.0 yards per attempt, 14 TD, 11 INT) has the edge on Mason McKenzie (Boston College: 7.4, 7 TD, 7 INT); off the edge, Rylan Kennedy (Florida State: 6 sacks) has the edge on E'Lla Boykin (Boston College: 4), facing the Boston College pass protection (118th of 138).
- Simulation: Florida State win 6,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Florida State 68% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Florida State may not
- Interception margin per game: Boston College rank 23rd (+0.5), Florida State 133rd (-0.9) of 138 FBS teams.
- Home field: Boston College play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Boston College -5.7, Florida State -14.7.
- Travel: Florida State come about 1,766 km (1,097 miles) for this one.
- Team matchup: where Boston College can push back. Their running game (33rd of 138) meets the Florida State run defense (126th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their pass rush (32nd of 138) meets the Florida State pass protection (111th): a chance to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Florida State on paper, but quarterback Mason McKenzie (1,496 yards, 7 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Boston College win 3,290 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| FSU | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 4-4 |
| 30.6 54 | Points per game | 21.6 111 |
| 28.9 105 | Points allowed | 26.5 91 |
| 6.8 30 | Yards per play | 5.7 99 |
| 6.7 114 | Yards per play allowed | 5.9 79 |
| -0.9 133 | Interception margin/game | +0.5 23 |
| 7.9% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 32 |
| 1576 53 | Elo rating | 1352 99 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-02 | 2024 Wk 1 | Boston College 28 @ Florida State 13 | BC |
| 2023-09-16 | 2023 Wk 3 | Florida State 31 @ Boston College 29 | FSU |
| 2022-09-25 | 2022 Wk 4 | Boston College 14 @ Florida State 44 | FSU |
| 2021-11-20 | 2021 Wk 12 | Florida State 26 @ Boston College 23 | FSU |
| 2019-11-09 | 2019 Wk 11 | Florida State 38 @ Boston College 31 | FSU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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