- Miami AP #1 · ACC 6-0, 1st · 8-0 overall · W8
- Notre Dame AP #4 · 7-1 overall · W1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | ND -4.5 | Same |
| Total | 57.5 | 57.3 |
| Moneyline | MIA +170 ND -205 | MIA +157 ND -157 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Notre Dame by 4.5, total 57.5.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Notre Dame can win
- Elo rating: worth about 2.7 points to Notre Dame in our ratings.
- Home field: Notre Dame play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Notre Dame +23.0, Miami +13.3.
- Team matchup: where Notre Dame can take advantage. Their passing game (23rd of 138) meets the Miami pass defense (74th), so look for them to throw early and often. And their big-play offense (33rd of 138) meets the Miami defense against big plays (68th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Notre Dame. The closest: in the backfield, Nolan James Jr. (Notre Dame: 65 rushing yards a game, 5.8 a carry) is about even with Javian Mallory (Miami: 61, 7.0), facing the Miami run defense (4th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: Notre Dame 64% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Notre Dame win 6,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Notre Dame may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Notre Dame lose by 15 or more.
- Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.
- Availability: college football has no league-wide injury report. The ACC and Big 12 post availability reports about 2 hours before kickoff; other conferences may not.
- Small samples: teams play only 12 regular-season games, against very different schedules.
- Team matchup: where Miami can push back. Their passing game (5th of 138) meets the Notre Dame pass defense (26th), so look for them to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Malachi Toney (Miami: 128 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Jordan Faison (Notre Dame: 62, 0 TD), facing the Notre Dame pass defense (26th of 138); at quarterback, Darian Mensah (Miami: 11.1 yards per attempt, 23 TD, 1 INT) has the edge on C.J. Carr (Notre Dame: 9.3, 17 TD, 1 INT).
- Upset odds: Miami win 3,880 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| MIA | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | Record | 7-1 |
| 47.6 1 | Points per game | 40.4 5 |
| 17.8 21 | Points allowed | 13.4 5 |
| 7.8 4 | Yards per play | 6.8 27 |
| 5.7 62 | Yards per play allowed | 4.6 5 |
| +0.2 42 | Interception margin/game | +0.8 9 |
| 7.2% 45 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 48 |
| 2005 5 | Elo rating | 2106 1 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 2025 Wk 1 | Notre Dame 24 @ Miami 27 | MIA |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 11 | Notre Dame 8 @ Miami 41 | MIA |
| 2016-10-29 | 2016 Wk 9 | Miami 27 @ Notre Dame 30 | ND |
| 2012-10-06 | 2012 Wk 6 | Miami 3 @ Notre Dame 41 | ND |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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