- North Carolina ACC 2-3, 11th · 4-4 overall · L2
- UConn 4-4 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNC -7.5 | Same |
| Total | 52.75 | 52.8 |
| Moneyline | UNC -298 CONN +240 | UNC -233 CONN +233 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : North Carolina by 7.5, total 52.75.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why North Carolina can win
- Elo rating: worth about 0.6 points to North Carolina in our ratings.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: North Carolina rank 100th (6.8%), UConn 132nd (10.3%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Field goal percentage: North Carolina rank 76th (72.7%), UConn 123rd (57.1%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where North Carolina can take advantage. Their pass rush (93rd of 138) meets the UConn pass protection (132nd), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: Off the edge, Xavier Lewis (North Carolina: 6 sacks) has the edge on Hayden Pegg (UConn: 2), facing the UConn pass protection (132nd of 138); at receiver, Jordan Shipp (North Carolina: 73 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Shamar Porter (UConn: 35, 2 TD), facing the UConn pass defense (57th of 138).
- Simulation: North Carolina win 6,990 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: North Carolina 72% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why North Carolina may not
- Home field: UConn play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.1 points to UConn in our ratings.
- Plays of 20+ yards per game: UConn rank 8th (6.0), North Carolina 106th (3.5) of 138 FBS teams.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, UConn +8.0, North Carolina +0.0.
- Team matchup: where UConn can push back. Their running game (6th of 138) meets the North Carolina run defense (68th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their passing game (9th of 138) meets the North Carolina pass defense (62nd): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Kalieb Osborne (UConn: 10.1 yards per attempt, 11 TD, 2 INT) has the edge on Billy Edwards (North Carolina: 8.6, 15 TD, 5 INT); in the backfield, Cyncir Bowers (UConn: 71 rushing yards a game, 6.8 a carry) has the edge on Benjamin Hall (North Carolina: 37, 4.9), facing the North Carolina run defense (68th of 138).
- Upset odds: UConn win 3,010 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| UNC | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 4-4 |
| 25.8 88 | Points per game | 34.4 30 |
| 23.0 57 | Points allowed | 25.2 74 |
| 6.1 76 | Yards per play | 7.7 7 |
| 5.6 60 | Yards per play allowed | 5.4 43 |
| +0.0 73 | Interception margin/game | +0.1 58 |
| 5.0% 93 | Sacks per dropback | 3.7% 124 |
| 1474 72 | Elo rating | 1479 71 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | 2024 Bowl/playoff | UConn 27 @ North Carolina 14 | CONN |
| 2009-09-12 | 2009 Wk 2 | North Carolina 12 @ Connecticut 10 | UNC |
| 2008-10-04 | 2008 Wk 6 | Connecticut 12 @ North Carolina 38 | UNC |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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