Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | NEB -5.5 | Same |
| Total | 48.5 | 48.6 |
| Moneyline | NEB -198 ILL +164 | NEB -183 ILL +183 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Nebraska by 5.5, total 48.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Nebraska can win
- Elo rating: worth about 6.7 points to Nebraska in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Nebraska rank 15th (+16.8), Illinois 69th (+4.8) of 138 FBS teams.
- Interception margin per game: Nebraska rank 31st (+0.4), Illinois 116th (-0.5) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Nebraska can take advantage. Their passing game (89th of 138) meets the Illinois pass defense (124th), so look for them to throw early and often. And their big-play offense (22nd of 138) meets the Illinois defense against big plays (50th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: Off the edge, Dawson Merritt (Nebraska: 2 sacks) has the edge on Daniel Brown (Illinois: 1), facing the Illinois pass protection (15th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: Nebraska 65% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Nebraska win 6,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Nebraska may not
- Home field: Illinois play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Illinois +5.0, Nebraska -4.3.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Nebraska lose by 14 or more.
- History: Illinois won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters turn over fast in college, so this says little).
- Team matchup: a strength Nebraska may not get to use. Their running game (31st of 138) meets the Illinois run defense (41st), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Collin Dixon (Illinois: 98 receiving yards a game, 1 TD) has the edge on Kwazi Gilmer (Nebraska: 62, 0 TD), facing the Nebraska pass defense (34th of 138); in the backfield, Aidan Laughery (Illinois: 70 rushing yards a game, 6.3 a carry) has the edge on Jamal Rule (Nebraska: 48, 6.5), facing the Nebraska run defense (29th of 138).
- Upset odds: Illinois win 3,530 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| NEB | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 5-3 |
| 32.4 44 | Points per game | 29.0 65 |
| 15.6 14 | Points allowed | 24.2 66 |
| 6.2 60 | Yards per play | 6.2 63 |
| 5.1 20 | Yards per play allowed | 6.4 107 |
| +0.4 31 | Interception margin/game | -0.5 116 |
| 7.8% 35 | Sacks per dropback | 3.5% 126 |
| 1749 24 | Elo rating | 1576 53 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | 2024 Wk 4 | Illinois 31 @ Nebraska 24 | ILL |
| 2023-10-07 | 2023 Wk 6 | Nebraska 20 @ Illinois 7 | NEB |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022 Wk 9 | Illinois 26 @ Nebraska 9 | ILL |
| 2021-08-28 | 2021 Wk 1 | Nebraska 22 @ Illinois 30 | ILL |
| 2020-11-21 | 2020 Wk 12 | Illinois 41 @ Nebraska 23 | ILL |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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