- Michigan State Big Ten 0-5, 18th · 2-6 overall · L6
- Michigan Big Ten 2-3, 12th · 5-3 overall · W1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | MICH -13 | Same |
| Total | 39.5 | 39.9 |
| Moneyline | MSU +440 MICH -600 | MSU +467 MICH -467 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Michigan by 13, total 39.5.
Your pick
Picks lock at kickoff. Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.
Our number.
Advantages Why Michigan can win
- Elo rating: worth about 9.2 points to Michigan in our ratings.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.6 points to Michigan in our ratings.
- Home field: Michigan play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Team matchup: where Michigan can take advantage. Their pass rush (25th of 138) meets the Michigan State pass protection (120th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their passing game (81st of 138) meets the Michigan State pass defense (106th): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Tommy Carr (Michigan: 7.8 yards per attempt, 2 TD, 1 INT; filling in for Bryce Underwood, missed the last game) has the edge on Leo Hannan (Michigan State: 5.1, 0 TD, 1 INT; filling in for Alessio Milivojevic, missed the last game); at receiver, JJ Buchanan (Michigan: 75 receiving yards a game, 1 TD) has the edge on Chrishon Mccray (Michigan State: 36, 1 TD), facing the Michigan State pass defense (106th of 138).
- Simulation: Michigan win 8,240 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Michigan 82% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Michigan may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Michigan lose by 5 or more.
- Weak spot: Michigan rank 131st of 138 in plays of 20+ yards per game (2.8).
- Weak spot: Michigan rank 122nd of 138 in running game, yards per carry (4.4).
- Weak spot: Michigan rank 116th of 138 in offense, yards per play (5.5).
- Team matchup: Michigan State have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Michigan on paper, but quarterback Leo Hannan (77 yards, 0 TD; filling in for Alessio Milivojevic, missed the last game) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Michigan State win 1,760 of 10,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.
Loading…
Sign in or create a free account to ask.
AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Team news
Loading the latest headlines...
Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Side by side
| MSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 5-3 |
| 19.9 124 | Points per game | 21.2 115 |
| 25.8 85 | Points allowed | 16.4 18 |
| 4.8 136 | Yards per play | 5.5 116 |
| 6.0 86 | Yards per play allowed | 4.6 4 |
| -0.5 116 | Interception margin/game | -0.1 86 |
| 5.9% 72 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 25 |
| 1444 80 | Elo rating | 1735 29 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | 2025 Wk 9 | Michigan 31 @ Michigan State 20 | MICH |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 Wk 9 | Michigan State 17 @ Michigan 24 | MICH |
| 2023-10-21 | 2023 Wk 8 | Michigan 49 @ Michigan State 0 | MICH |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022 Wk 9 | Michigan State 7 @ Michigan 29 | MICH |
| 2021-10-30 | 2021 Wk 9 | Michigan 33 @ Michigan State 37 | MSU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat