Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCLA -6.5 | Same |
| Total | 38.5 | 38.9 |
| Moneyline | UCLA -238 MINN +195 | UCLA -214 MINN +214 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : UCLA by 6.5, total 38.5.
Your pick
Picks lock at kickoff. Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.
Our number.
Advantages Why UCLA can win
- Elo rating: worth about 11.5 points to UCLA in our ratings.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 4.6 points to UCLA in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, UCLA +18.3, Minnesota -10.7.
- Team matchup: where UCLA can take advantage. Their running game (24th of 138) meets the Minnesota run defense (61st), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their big-play offense (20th of 138) meets the Minnesota defense against big plays (50th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Wayne Knight (UCLA: 79 rushing yards a game, 5.9 a carry) has the edge on TJ Thomas Jr. (Minnesota: 48, 6.1), facing the Minnesota run defense (61st of 138); at quarterback, Ty Dieffenbach (UCLA: 8.2 yards per attempt, 3 TD, 1 INT; filling in for Nico Iamaleava, missed the last 3 games) has the edge on Drake Lindsey (Minnesota: 7.0, 9 TD, 6 INT).
- Simulation: UCLA win 6,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: UCLA 68% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why UCLA may not
- Home field: Minnesota play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Travel: UCLA come about 2,439 km (1,514 miles) for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, UCLA lose by 11 or more.
- Body clock: UCLA cross 2 time zones.
- Team matchup: a strength UCLA may not get to use. Their passing game (15th of 138) meets the Minnesota pass defense (25th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean UCLA on paper, but quarterback Drake Lindsey (1,666 yards, 9 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Minnesota win 3,190 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.
Loading…
Sign in or create a free account to ask.
AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Team news
Loading the latest headlines...
Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Side by side
| UCLA | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | Record | 5-3 |
| 33.5 36 | Points per game | 25.2 89 |
| 13.4 5 | Points allowed | 20.5 35 |
| 7.0 19 | Yards per play | 5.5 117 |
| 4.2 1 | Yards per play allowed | 5.3 25 |
| +1.1 2 | Interception margin/game | +0.2 42 |
| 6.6% 58 | Sacks per dropback | 6.3% 62 |
| 1759 22 | Elo rating | 1448 79 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 7 | Minnesota 21 @ UCLA 17 | MINN |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat