- Iowa AP #21 · Big Ten 3-2, 7th · 6-2 overall · W1
- Northwestern Big Ten 3-2, 9th · 6-2 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | NU -1.5 | Same |
| Total | 42.5 | 42.6 |
| Moneyline | IOWA +105 NU -125 | IOWA +119 NU -119 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Northwestern by 1.5, total 42.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Northwestern can win
- Home field: Northwestern play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Offense, yards per play: Northwestern rank 22nd (6.9), Iowa 98th (5.8) of 138 FBS teams.
- Interception margin per game: Northwestern rank 5th (+0.9), Iowa 58th (+0.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Northwestern can take advantage. Their passing game (42nd of 138) meets the Iowa pass defense (89th), so look for them to throw early and often. And their big-play offense (10th of 138) meets the Iowa defense against big plays (31st): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Aidan Chiles (Northwestern: 10.1 yards per attempt, 12 TD, 1 INT) has the edge on Hank Brown (Iowa: 7.2, 7 TD, 3 INT); in the backfield, Caleb Komolafe (Northwestern: 76 rushing yards a game, 5.9 a carry) has the edge on Xavier Williams (Iowa: 33, 5.9; filling in for Kamari Moulton, missed the last game), facing the Iowa run defense (1st of 138).
- The betting market agrees: Northwestern 52% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Northwestern win 5,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Northwestern may not
- Elo rating: worth about 6.5 points to Iowa in our ratings.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Iowa rank 10th (2.4%), Northwestern 96th (6.6%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Northwestern lose by 17 or more.
- History: Iowa won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters turn over fast in college, so this says little).
- Team matchup: where Iowa can push back. Their pass rush (4th of 138) meets the Northwestern pass protection (96th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their running game (37th of 138) meets the Northwestern run defense (107th): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Northwestern on paper, but quarterback Hank Brown (1,210 yards, 7 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Iowa win 4,560 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
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Side by side
| IOWA | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 6-2 |
| 28.2 70 | Points per game | 33.6 34 |
| 12.5 4 | Points allowed | 18.8 25 |
| 5.8 98 | Yards per play | 6.9 22 |
| 5.3 30 | Yards per play allowed | 6.1 90 |
| +0.1 58 | Interception margin/game | +0.9 5 |
| 11.1% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 110 |
| 1913 11 | Elo rating | 1747 27 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 Wk 9 | Northwestern 14 @ Iowa 40 | IOWA |
| 2023-11-04 | 2023 Wk 10 | Iowa 10 @ Northwestern 7 | IOWA |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022 Wk 9 | Northwestern 13 @ Iowa 33 | IOWA |
| 2021-11-06 | 2021 Wk 10 | Iowa 17 @ Northwestern 12 | IOWA |
| 2020-10-31 | 2020 Wk 9 | Northwestern 21 @ Iowa 20 | NU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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