- Oregon Big Ten 3-2, 8th · 5-3 overall · W1
- Ohio State AP #11 · Big Ten 4-1, 3rd · 6-2 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | OSU -7.5 | Same |
| Total | 48.75 | 48.7 |
| Moneyline | ORE +250 OSU -310 | ORE +231 OSU -231 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Ohio State by 7.5, total 48.75.
Your pick
Picks lock at kickoff. Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.
Our number.
Advantages Why Ohio State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 7.5 points to Ohio State in our ratings.
- Home field: Ohio State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.9 points to Ohio State in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where Ohio State can take advantage. Their big-play offense (20th of 138) meets the Oregon defense against big plays (129th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their passing game (4th of 138) meets the Oregon pass defense (39th): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State: 135 receiving yards a game, 1 TD) has the edge on Dakorien Moore (Oregon: 70, 0 TD), facing the Oregon pass defense (39th of 138); in the backfield, Bo Jackson (Ohio State: 80 rushing yards a game, 5.0 a carry) has the edge on Jordon Davison (Oregon: 55, 4.8), facing the Oregon run defense (79th of 138).
- Simulation: Ohio State win 6,980 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Ohio State 74% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Ohio State may not
- Interception margin per game: Oregon rank 31st (+0.4), Ohio State 86th (-0.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Oregon rank 27th (3.7%), Ohio State 92nd (6.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ohio State lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Ohio State rank 125th of 138 in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.6%).
- Team matchup: where Oregon can push back. Their pass rush (66th of 138) meets the Ohio State pass protection (92nd), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: Off the edge, Matayo Uiagalelei (Oregon: 4 sacks) has the edge on Kenyatta Jackson (Ohio State: 2), facing the Ohio State pass protection (92nd of 138).
- Upset odds: Oregon win 3,020 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.
Loading…
Sign in or create a free account to ask.
AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Team news
Loading the latest headlines...
Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Side by side
| ORE | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 6-2 |
| 33.2 38 | Points per game | 36.6 19 |
| 21.4 47 | Points allowed | 15.5 13 |
| 6.3 55 | Yards per play | 7.3 12 |
| 5.6 54 | Yards per play allowed | 4.7 8 |
| +0.4 31 | Interception margin/game | -0.1 86 |
| 6.2% 66 | Sacks per dropback | 3.6% 125 |
| 1796 19 | Elo rating | 2036 4 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | 2024 Bowl/playoff | Ohio State 41 @ Oregon 21 | OSU |
| 2024-10-12 | 2024 Wk 7 | Ohio State 31 @ Oregon 32 | ORE |
| 2021-09-11 | 2021 Wk 2 | Oregon 35 @ Ohio State 28 | ORE |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat