Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | PUR -6.5 | Same |
| Total | 56.5 | 56.4 |
| Moneyline | MD +180 PUR -218 | MD +201 PUR -201 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Purdue by 6.5, total 56.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Purdue can win
- Elo rating: worth about 3.2 points to Purdue in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Purdue +0.7, Maryland -13.0.
- Home field: Purdue play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Team matchup: where Purdue can take advantage. Their passing game (41st of 138) meets the Maryland pass defense (105th), so look for them to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Ryan Browne (Purdue: 8.8 yards per attempt, 10 TD, 5 INT) has the edge on Malik Washington (Maryland: 6.6, 7 TD, 6 INT); in the backfield, Fame Ijeboi (Purdue: 70 rushing yards a game, 4.1 a carry) has the edge on DeJuan Williams (Maryland: 42, 5.9), facing the Maryland run defense (78th of 138).
- Simulation: Purdue win 6,680 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Purdue 65% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Purdue may not
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Maryland rank 11th (2.5%), Purdue 83rd (6.0%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Purdue lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Purdue rank 133rd of 138 in plays of 20+ yards allowed per game (5.6).
- Weak spot: Purdue rank 127th of 138 in running game, yards per carry (4.2).
- Team matchup: where Maryland can push back. Their running game (90th of 138) meets the Purdue run defense (118th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their pass rush (57th of 138) meets the Purdue pass protection (83rd): a chance to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Purdue on paper, but quarterback Malik Washington (1,866 yards, 7 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Maryland win 3,320 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| MD | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 3-5 |
| 26.9 77 | Points per game | 29.5 60 |
| 31.6 121 | Points allowed | 32.1 125 |
| 5.6 111 | Yards per play | 6.2 65 |
| 6.3 100 | Yards per play allowed | 6.7 115 |
| +0.0 73 | Interception margin/game | +0.2 42 |
| 6.6% 57 | Sacks per dropback | 3.8% 122 |
| 1298 109 | Elo rating | 1413 84 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-08 | 2022 Wk 6 | Purdue 31 @ Maryland 29 | PUR |
| 2019-10-12 | 2019 Wk 7 | Maryland 14 @ Purdue 40 | PUR |
| 2016-10-01 | 2016 Wk 5 | Purdue 7 @ Maryland 50 | MD |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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