- Penn State Big Ten 1-4, 15th · 4-4 overall · W1
- Washington Big Ten 2-3, 11th · 5-3 overall · W2
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | WASH -1.5 | Same |
| Total | 43.5 | 43.9 |
| Moneyline | PSU +102 WASH -122 | PSU +115 WASH -115 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Washington by 1.5, total 43.5.
Your pick
Picks lock at kickoff. Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.
Our number.
Advantages Why Washington can win
- Home field: Washington play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Travel: Penn State come about 3,571 km (2,217 miles) for this one.
- Offense, yards per play: Washington rank 34th (6.7), Penn State 105th (5.7) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Washington can take advantage. Their running game (95th of 138) meets the Penn State run defense (130th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Chris Lawson (Washington: 62 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Koby Howard (Penn State: 43, 0 TD; filling in for Chase Sowell, missed the last game), facing the Penn State pass defense (16th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: Washington 52% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Washington win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Washington may not
- Elo rating: worth about 3.8 points to Penn State in our ratings.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Penn State rank 55th (4.9%), Washington 114th (8.1%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Washington lose by 17 or more.
- Weak spot: Washington rank 114th of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.1%).
- Team matchup: a strength Washington may not get to use. Their big-play offense (31st of 138) meets the Penn State defense against big plays (49th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Carson Hansen (Penn State: 46 rushing yards a game, 4.3 a carry) has the edge on Brian Bonner Jr. (Washington: 37, 4.7), facing the Washington run defense (23rd of 138); off the edge, Tony Rojas (Penn State: 3 sacks) has the edge on Alex McLaughlin (Washington: 2), facing the Washington pass protection (114th of 138).
- Upset odds: Penn State win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.
Loading…
Sign in or create a free account to ask.
AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Team news
Loading the latest headlines...
Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Side by side
| PSU | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 5-3 |
| 29.0 65 | Points per game | 26.5 83 |
| 18.6 24 | Points allowed | 21.1 42 |
| 5.7 105 | Yards per play | 6.7 34 |
| 5.8 67 | Yards per play allowed | 5.2 22 |
| +0.4 31 | Interception margin/game | +0.4 31 |
| 3.9% 120 | Sacks per dropback | 5.1% 91 |
| 1810 16 | Elo rating | 1722 31 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 11 | Washington 6 @ Penn State 35 | PSU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat