Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | WIS -16.5 | Same |
| Total | 45.75 | 45.9 |
| Moneyline | RUTG +525 WIS -750 | RUTG +633 WIS -633 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Wisconsin by 16.5, total 45.75.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Wisconsin can win
- Elo rating: worth about 9.1 points to Wisconsin in our ratings.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 3.2 points to Wisconsin in our ratings.
- Home field: Wisconsin play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Team matchup: where Wisconsin can take advantage. Their passing game (31st of 138) meets the Rutgers pass defense (85th), so look for them to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Tyrell Henry (Wisconsin: 50 receiving yards a game, 1 TD) has the edge on Antwan Raymond (Rutgers: 20, 0 TD; filling in for KJ Duff, missed the last game), facing the Rutgers pass defense (85th of 138); at quarterback, Colton Joseph (Wisconsin: 8.7 yards per attempt, 7 TD, 4 INT) has the edge on AJ Surace (Rutgers: 8.2, 5 TD, 5 INT; filling in for Dylan Lonergan, missed the last game).
- Simulation: Wisconsin win 8,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Wisconsin 85% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Wisconsin may not
- Plays of 20+ yards per game: Rutgers rank 75th (4.1), Wisconsin 124th (3.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Wisconsin lose by 3 or more.
- Offense, yards per play: Rutgers rank 41st (6.5), Wisconsin 75th (6.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: Wisconsin rank 124th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards per game (3.1).
- Team matchup: Rutgers have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Antwan Raymond (Rutgers: 93 rushing yards a game, 5.5 a carry) has the edge on Abu Sama III (Wisconsin: 38, 5.5), facing the Wisconsin run defense (6th of 138).
- Upset odds: Rutgers win 1,360 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
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Side by side
| RUTG | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 5-3 |
| 27.8 73 | Points per game | 23.6 97 |
| 32.6 127 | Points allowed | 17.1 19 |
| 6.5 41 | Yards per play | 6.1 75 |
| 6.8 122 | Yards per play allowed | 4.4 2 |
| -0.8 129 | Interception margin/game | +0.2 42 |
| 4.2% 116 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 112 |
| 1353 97 | Elo rating | 1641 42 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-12 | 2024 Wk 7 | Wisconsin 42 @ Rutgers 7 | WIS |
| 2023-10-07 | 2023 Wk 6 | Rutgers 13 @ Wisconsin 24 | WIS |
| 2021-11-06 | 2021 Wk 10 | Wisconsin 52 @ Rutgers 3 | WIS |
| 2018-11-03 | 2018 Wk 10 | Rutgers 17 @ Wisconsin 31 | WIS |
| 2015-10-31 | 2015 Wk 9 | Rutgers 10 @ Wisconsin 48 | WIS |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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