- Boise State AP #20 · Pac-12 4-0, 1st · 7-1 overall · W7
- Colorado State Pac-12 1-3, 7th · 3-5 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | BOIS -18 | Same |
| Total | 68.5 | 67.9 |
| Moneyline | BOIS -1200 CSU +750 | BOIS -742 CSU +742 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Boise State by 18, total 68.5.
Your pick
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Our number.
Advantages Why Boise State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 20.3 points to Boise State in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Boise State +9.7, Colorado State -16.3.
- Point differential per game: Boise State rank 35th (+12.2), Colorado State 117th (-6.9) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Boise State can take advantage. Their running game (29th of 138) meets the Colorado State run defense (138th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their big-play offense (69th of 138) meets the Colorado State defense against big plays (137th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Dylan Riley (Boise State: 130 rushing yards a game, 6.3 a carry) has the edge on Durell Robinson (Colorado State: 62, 4.6), facing the Colorado State run defense (138th of 138); at receiver, Rasean Jones (Boise State: 68 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Reginald Vick Jr (Colorado State: 53, 0 TD), facing the Colorado State pass defense (138th of 138).
- Simulation: Boise State win 8,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Boise State 87% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Boise State may not
- Home field: Colorado State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Colorado State's running game (6.1 yards, 13th in FBS) faces the Boise State defense, which ranks 81st against it.
- Offense, yards per play: Colorado State rank 33rd (6.7), Boise State 81st (6.0) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Boise State lose by 1 or more.
- Team matchup: where Colorado State can push back. Their big-play offense (33rd of 138) meets the Boise State defense against big plays (104th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their passing game (65th of 138) meets the Boise State pass defense (135th): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Hauss Hejny (Colorado State: 8.8 yards per attempt, 13 TD, 2 INT; filling in for Ksaan Farrar, missed the last 2 games) has the edge on Maddux Madsen (Boise State: 7.6, 15 TD, 1 INT).
- Upset odds: Colorado State win 1,190 of 10,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
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Side by side
| BOIS | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 3-5 |
| 35.9 21 | Points per game | 35.5 25 |
| 23.6 60 | Points allowed | 42.4 138 |
| 6.0 81 | Yards per play | 6.7 33 |
| 7.4 134 | Yards per play allowed | 8.8 138 |
| +0.5 23 | Interception margin/game | +0.5 23 |
| 8.2% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 113 |
| 1714 32 | Elo rating | 1146 125 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 13 | Colorado State 21 @ Boise State 49 | BOIS |
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 7 | Boise State 30 @ Colorado State 31 | CSU |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022 Wk 9 | Colorado State 10 @ Boise State 49 | BOIS |
| 2021-10-30 | 2021 Wk 9 | Boise State 28 @ Colorado State 19 | BOIS |
| 2020-11-13 | 2020 Wk 11 | Colorado State 21 @ Boise State 52 | BOIS |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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