- Texas State Pac-12 2-2, 4th · 4-4 overall · L1
- Oregon State Pac-12 3-1, 2nd · 5-3 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | ORST -7.5 | Same |
| Total | 67.5 | 67.1 |
| Moneyline | TXST +205 ORST -250 | TXST +214 ORST -214 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Oregon State by 7.5, total 67.5.
Your pick
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Our number.
Advantages Why Oregon State can win
- Home field: Oregon State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Point differential per game: Oregon State rank 21st (+15.1), Texas State 61st (+6.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Travel: Texas State come about 2,756 km (1,711 miles) for this one.
- Team matchup: where Oregon State can take advantage. Their big-play offense (2nd of 138) meets the Texas State defense against big plays (60th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their passing game (24th of 138) meets the Texas State pass defense (72nd): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Jesse Legree (Oregon State: 139 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Chris Dawn Jr. (Texas State: 60, 5 TD), facing the Texas State pass defense (72nd of 138); off the edge, Takari Hickle (Oregon State: 4 sacks) has the edge on Tymere Jackson (Texas State: 2), facing the Texas State pass protection (46th of 138).
- Simulation: Oregon State win 6,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Oregon State 70% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Oregon State may not
- Texas State's passing game (8.7 yards, 17th in FBS) faces the Oregon State defense, which ranks 58th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Oregon State lose by 13 or more.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 0.8 points to Texas State in our ratings.
- Weak spot: Oregon State rank 102nd of 138 in run defense, yards per carry allowed (5.3).
- Team matchup: where Texas State can push back. Their running game (10th of 138) meets the Oregon State run defense (102nd), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their big-play offense (10th of 138) meets the Oregon State defense against big plays (60th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Torrance Burgess Jr. (Texas State: 114 rushing yards a game, 7.2 a carry) has the edge on AJ Newberry (Oregon State: 58, 6.5), facing the Oregon State run defense (102nd of 138).
- Upset odds: Texas State win 3,190 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| TXST | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 5-3 |
| 38.1 13 | Points per game | 40.1 7 |
| 32.0 124 | Points allowed | 25.0 71 |
| 7.2 14 | Yards per play | 7.3 13 |
| 5.6 61 | Yards per play allowed | 5.9 70 |
| +0.2 42 | Interception margin/game | +0.6 13 |
| 2.3% 135 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 50 |
| 1569 55 | Elo rating | 1581 52 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2004.
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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