- Fresno State Pac-12 2-2, 5th · 5-3 overall · W1
- Utah State Pac-12 2-2, 6th · 3-5 overall · W1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | FRES -2 | Same |
| Total | 41.5 | 42 |
| Moneyline | FRES -130 USU +110 | FRES -125 USU +125 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Fresno State by 2, total 41.5.
Your pick
Picks lock at kickoff. Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.
Our number.
Advantages Why Fresno State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 10.0 points to Fresno State in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Fresno State rank 51st (+7.9), Utah State 111th (-5.0) of 138 FBS teams.
- Interception margin per game: Fresno State rank 13th (+0.6), Utah State 133rd (-0.9) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Fresno State can take advantage. Their pass rush (44th of 138) meets the Utah State pass protection (112th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Josiah Freeman (Fresno State: 64 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Javon Robinson (Utah State: 34, 0 TD; filling in for Eli Wood, missed the last game), facing the Utah State pass defense (10th of 138); at quarterback, Jayden Mandal (Fresno State: 7.7 yards per attempt, 9 TD, 2 INT) has the edge on McCae Hillstead (Utah State: 7.2, 3 TD, 4 INT; filling in for Grady Brosterhous, missed the last game).
- The betting market agrees: Fresno State 55% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Fresno State win 5,560 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Fresno State may not
- Home field: Utah State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.8 points to Utah State in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Fresno State lose by 17 or more.
- Weak spot: Fresno State rank 106th of 138 in defense, yards per play allowed (6.4).
- Team matchup: Utah State have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Javen Jacobs (Utah State: 64 rushing yards a game, 5.2 a carry) has the edge on Bryson Donelson (Fresno State: 51, 5.0), facing the Fresno State run defense (104th of 138).
- Upset odds: Utah State win 4,440 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.
Loading…
Sign in or create a free account to ask.
AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Team news
Loading the latest headlines...
Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Side by side
| FRES | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 3-5 |
| 28.9 68 | Points per game | 16.9 134 |
| 21.0 40 | Points allowed | 21.9 50 |
| 6.0 84 | Yards per play | 5.8 97 |
| 6.4 106 | Yards per play allowed | 5.0 16 |
| +0.6 13 | Interception margin/game | -0.9 133 |
| 7.2% 44 | Sacks per dropback | 4.7% 100 |
| 1658 39 | Elo rating | 1389 90 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 13 | Utah State 28 @ Fresno State 17 | USU |
| 2023-10-14 | 2023 Wk 7 | Fresno State 37 @ Utah State 32 | FRES |
| 2020-11-14 | 2020 Wk 11 | Fresno State 35 @ Utah State 16 | FRES |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 11 | Utah State 37 @ Fresno State 35 | USU |
| 2016-10-23 | 2016 Wk 8 | Fresno State 20 @ Utah State 38 | USU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat