- UTSA American 4-0, 1st · 7-1 overall · W5
- Florida Atlantic American 2-2, 7th · 5-3 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA -6.5 | Same |
| Total | 72.25 | 71.7 |
| Moneyline | UTSA -218 FAU +180 | UTSA -203 FAU +203 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : UTSA by 6.5, total 72.25.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why UTSA can win
- Elo rating: worth about 12.6 points to UTSA in our ratings.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 5.1 points to UTSA in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, UTSA +11.3, Florida Atlantic -12.3.
- Team matchup: where UTSA can take advantage. Their passing game (20th of 138) meets the Florida Atlantic pass defense (122nd), so look for them to throw early and often. And their running game (51st of 138) meets the Florida Atlantic run defense (137th): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: Off the edge, Owen Pewee (UTSA: 4 sacks) has the edge on Damon Allen, Josh Roberts (Florida Atlantic: 1), facing the Florida Atlantic pass protection (37th of 138); in the backfield, Will Henderson III (UTSA: 72 rushing yards a game, 5.3 a carry) has the edge on Ethan Ervin (Florida Atlantic: 46, 4.1), facing the Florida Atlantic run defense (137th of 138).
- Simulation: UTSA win 6,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: UTSA 67% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why UTSA may not
- Home field: Florida Atlantic play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Travel: UTSA come about 1,835 km (1,140 miles) for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, UTSA lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: UTSA rank 129th of 138 in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Team matchup: Florida Atlantic have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Easton Messer (Florida Atlantic: 119 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on DJ Allen (UTSA: 43, 2 TD), facing the UTSA pass defense (22nd of 138).
- Upset odds: Florida Atlantic win 3,300 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| UTSA | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 5-3 |
| 33.5 36 | Points per game | 37.8 14 |
| 26.0 89 | Points allowed | 35.8 132 |
| 6.8 28 | Yards per play | 6.1 77 |
| 5.3 33 | Yards per play allowed | 7.5 136 |
| +0.5 23 | Interception margin/game | +0.1 58 |
| 3.2% 129 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 106 |
| 1588 50 | Elo rating | 1246 115 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-19 | 2024 Wk 8 | Florida Atlantic 24 @ UTSA 38 | UTSA |
| 2023-10-21 | 2023 Wk 8 | UTSA 36 @ Florida Atlantic 10 | UTSA |
| 2020-10-31 | 2020 Wk 9 | UTSA 3 @ Florida Atlantic 24 | FAU |
| 2019-11-23 | 2019 Wk 13 | Florida Atlantic 40 @ UTSA 26 | FAU |
| 2014-09-27 | 2014 Wk 5 | UTSA 37 @ Florida Atlantic 41 | FAU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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