- South Florida American 2-2, 5th · 6-2 overall · W2
- East Carolina American 2-2, 8th · 4-4 overall · W1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | USF -1.5 | Same |
| Total | 42.5 | 43 |
| Moneyline | USF -112 ECU -108 | USF -121 ECU +121 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : South Florida by 1.5, total 42.5.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why South Florida can win
- Elo rating: worth about 7.9 points to South Florida in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, South Florida +13.3, East Carolina -4.0.
- Point differential per game: South Florida rank 34th (+12.5), East Carolina 90th (-0.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where South Florida can take advantage. Their pass rush (40th of 138) meets the East Carolina pass protection (70th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: Off the edge, C.J. Hicks (South Florida: 5 sacks) has the edge on Jasiyah Robinson (East Carolina: 2), facing the East Carolina pass protection (70th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: South Florida 50% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: South Florida win 5,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why South Florida may not
- Home field: East Carolina play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Plays of 20+ yards per game: East Carolina rank 81st (4.0), South Florida 138th (1.8) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, South Florida lose by 18 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: East Carolina rank 70th (5.4%), South Florida 125th (9.1%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where East Carolina can push back. Their pass rush (10th of 138) meets the South Florida pass protection (125th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Mitch Griffis (East Carolina: 6.4 yards per attempt, 4 TD, 5 INT) has the edge on Luke Kromenhoek (South Florida: 4.6, 0 TD, 0 INT); in the backfield, TJ Engleman (East Carolina: 86 rushing yards a game, 6.6 a carry) has the edge on D.J. Crowther (South Florida: 72, 4.8), facing the South Florida run defense (51st of 138).
- Upset odds: East Carolina win 4,520 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
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Side by side
| USF | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 4-4 |
| 27.0 75 | Points per game | 24.0 94 |
| 14.5 10 | Points allowed | 24.1 64 |
| 5.1 129 | Yards per play | 5.4 122 |
| 5.9 74 | Yards per play allowed | 5.5 48 |
| +0.5 23 | Interception margin/game | +0.0 73 |
| 7.6% 40 | Sacks per dropback | 9.0% 10 |
| 1645 41 | Elo rating | 1438 81 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-01 | 2022 Wk 5 | East Carolina 48 @ South Florida 28 | ECU |
| 2021-10-28 | 2021 Wk 9 | South Florida 14 @ East Carolina 29 | ECU |
| 2020-10-10 | 2020 Wk 6 | East Carolina 44 @ South Florida 24 | ECU |
| 2019-10-26 | 2019 Wk 9 | South Florida 45 @ East Carolina 20 | USF |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 4 | East Carolina 13 @ South Florida 20 | USF |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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