Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UAB -10.5 | Same |
| Total | 50.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | CLT +320 UAB -410 | CLT +311 UAB -311 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : UAB by 10.5, total 50.5.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why UAB can win
- Elo rating: worth about 10.8 points to UAB in our ratings.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 3.4 points to UAB in our ratings.
- Home field: UAB play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Team matchup: where UAB can take advantage. Their passing game (58th of 138) meets the Charlotte pass defense (136th), so look for them to throw early and often. And their pass rush (38th of 138) meets the Charlotte pass protection (68th): a chance to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Ryder Burton (UAB: 8.8 yards per attempt, 5 TD, 4 INT) has the edge on Conner Harrell (Charlotte: 8.0, 4 TD, 2 INT; filling in for Cole Gonzales, missed the last 3 games); off the edge, Marlin Dean (UAB: 4 sacks) has the edge on Collin Gill (Charlotte: 2), facing the Charlotte pass protection (68th of 138).
- Simulation: UAB win 7,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: UAB 77% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why UAB may not
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Charlotte rank 68th (5.2%), UAB 136th (13.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, UAB lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: UAB rank 136th of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (13.5%).
- Weak spot: UAB rank 111th of 138 in points per game (21.6).
- Team matchup: where Charlotte can push back. Their pass rush (107th of 138) meets the UAB pass protection (136th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Derrick Eley (Charlotte: 60 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on C.J. Smith (UAB: 50, 1 TD), facing the UAB pass defense (1st of 138).
- Upset odds: Charlotte win 2,430 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
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Side by side
| CLT | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 4-4 |
| 20.6 120 | Points per game | 21.6 111 |
| 40.2 137 | Points allowed | 25.2 74 |
| 5.9 92 | Yards per play | 5.7 101 |
| 7.2 133 | Yards per play allowed | 4.8 11 |
| -0.9 133 | Interception margin/game | +0.1 58 |
| 4.4% 107 | Sacks per dropback | 7.6% 38 |
| 1028 134 | Elo rating | 1364 94 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-30 | 2024 Wk 14 | UAB 27 @ Charlotte 29 | CLT |
| 2022-10-15 | 2022 Wk 7 | Charlotte 20 @ UAB 34 | UAB |
| 2018-09-29 | 2018 Wk 5 | Charlotte 7 @ UAB 28 | UAB |
| 2017-10-21 | 2017 Wk 8 | UAB 24 @ Charlotte 25 | CLT |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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