Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | NAVY -7 | Same |
| Total | 52.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | TEM +220 NAVY -270 | TEM +215 NAVY -215 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Navy by 7, total 52.5.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Navy can win
- Elo rating: worth about 5.0 points to Navy in our ratings.
- Home field: Navy play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Navy's passing game (7.3 yards, 62nd in FBS) faces the Temple defense, which ranks 99th against it.
- Team matchup: where Navy can take advantage. Their pass rush (48th of 138) meets the Temple pass protection (122nd), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their running game (19th of 138) meets the Temple run defense (73rd): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Jackson Gutierrez (Navy: 11.2 yards per attempt, 7 TD, 1 INT) has the edge on Ajani Sheppard (Temple: 9.9, 8 TD, 3 INT); off the edge, MarcAnthony Parker (Navy: 4 sacks) has the edge on Curly Ordonez (Temple: 2), facing the Temple pass protection (122nd of 138).
- Simulation: Navy win 6,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Navy 69% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Navy may not
- Temple's running game (6.1 yards, 8th in FBS) faces the Navy defense, which ranks 40th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Navy lose by 12 or more.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 0.9 points to Temple in our ratings.
- Weak spot: Navy rank 137th of 138 in pass defense, yards per dropback allowed (9.6).
- Team matchup: where Temple can push back. Their passing game (29th of 138) meets the Navy pass defense (137th), so look for them to throw early and often. And their big-play offense (64th of 138) meets the Navy defense against big plays (126th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Colin Chase (Temple: 41 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Jordan Collins (Navy: 26, 3 TD), facing the Navy pass defense (137th of 138); in the backfield, Keveun Mason (Temple: 70 rushing yards a game, 5.5 a carry) has the edge on Michael Barrow (Navy: 62, 5.6), facing the Navy run defense (40th of 138).
- Upset odds: Temple win 3,170 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| TEM | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 2-6 |
| 23.6 97 | Points per game | 27.6 74 |
| 26.6 92 | Points allowed | 29.9 112 |
| 7.0 21 | Yards per play | 6.3 56 |
| 6.1 91 | Yards per play allowed | 6.8 121 |
| -0.1 93 | Interception margin/game | +0.2 42 |
| 3.7% 123 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 48 |
| 1293 110 | Elo rating | 1463 76 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | 2025 Wk 7 | Navy 32 @ Temple 31 | NAVY |
| 2024-09-07 | 2024 Wk 2 | Temple 11 @ Navy 38 | NAVY |
| 2023-11-04 | 2023 Wk 10 | Navy 18 @ Temple 32 | TEM |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022 Wk 9 | Temple 20 @ Navy 27 | NAVY |
| 2021-11-27 | 2021 Wk 13 | Navy 38 @ Temple 14 | NAVY |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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