- Rice American 0-4, 14th · 1-7 overall · L7
- North Texas American 4-0, 2nd · 6-2 overall · W5
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNT -16.5 | Same |
| Total | 65.5 | 65.3 |
| Moneyline | RICE +625 UNT -950 | RICE +603 UNT -603 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : North Texas by 16.5, total 65.5.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
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Our number.
Advantages Why North Texas can win
- Elo rating: worth about 17.7 points to North Texas in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, North Texas +19.0, Rice -13.0.
- Point differential per game: North Texas rank 38th (+11.9), Rice 127th (-10.8) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where North Texas can take advantage. Their running game (26th of 138) meets the Rice run defense (111th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their big-play offense (2nd of 138) meets the Rice defense against big plays (83rd): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Jahiem White (North Texas: 131 rushing yards a game, 7.3 a carry) has the edge on Tyvonn Byars (Rice: 57, 4.8), facing the Rice run defense (111th of 138); at receiver, Justin Stevenson (North Texas: 98 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Jordan Clark (Rice: 34, 0 TD), facing the Rice pass defense (77th of 138).
- Simulation: North Texas win 8,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: North Texas 86% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why North Texas may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, North Texas lose by 3 or more.
- Weak spot: North Texas rank 123rd of 138 in points allowed per game (31.9).
- Weak spot: North Texas rank 118th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards allowed per game (4.9).
- Weak spot: North Texas rank 110th of 138 in pass defense, yards per dropback allowed (7.9).
- Team matchup: where Rice can push back. Their running game (16th of 138) meets the North Texas run defense (66th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their big-play offense (97th of 138) meets the North Texas defense against big plays (118th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Gael Ochoa (Rice: 12.3 yards per attempt, 0 TD, 0 INT; filling in for Jacurri Brown, missed the last game) has the edge on Tayven Jackson (North Texas: 10.2, 20 TD, 5 INT); off the edge, Dillan Botts (Rice: 2 sacks) has the edge on Brayden Knox, Dylan Williams (North Texas: 1), facing the North Texas pass protection (6th of 138).
- Upset odds: Rice win 1,420 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
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Side by side
| RICE | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 6-2 |
| 21.0 117 | Points per game | 43.8 2 |
| 31.8 122 | Points allowed | 31.9 123 |
| 6.0 83 | Yards per play | 7.7 6 |
| 6.2 94 | Yards per play allowed | 6.2 93 |
| +0.1 58 | Interception margin/game | +0.1 58 |
| 4.5% 105 | Sacks per dropback | 5.9% 71 |
| 1129 127 | Elo rating | 1668 38 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 13 | North Texas 56 @ Rice 24 | UNT |
| 2022-11-26 | 2022 Wk 13 | Rice 17 @ North Texas 21 | UNT |
| 2021-10-30 | 2021 Wk 9 | North Texas 30 @ Rice 24 | UNT |
| 2020-11-21 | 2020 Wk 12 | Rice 17 @ North Texas 27 | UNT |
| 2019-11-23 | 2019 Wk 13 | North Texas 14 @ Rice 20 | RICE |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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