Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | TLSA -3 | Same |
| Total | 49 | 49.1 |
| Moneyline | TLSA -142 TULN +120 | TLSA -139 TULN +139 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Tulsa by 3, total 49.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Tulsa can win
- Interception margin per game: Tulsa rank 13th (+0.6), Tulane 108th (-0.4) of 138 FBS teams.
- Point differential per game: Tulsa rank 62nd (+5.4), Tulane 101st (-2.9) of 138 FBS teams.
- Tulsa's passing game (8.1 yards, 37th in FBS) faces the Tulane defense, which ranks 59th against it.
- Team matchup: where Tulsa can take advantage. Their running game (39th of 138) meets the Tulane run defense (110th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their big-play offense (75th of 138) meets the Tulane defense against big plays (110th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Baylor Hayes (Tulsa: 8.7 yards per attempt, 9 TD, 2 INT) has the edge on Trace Johnson (Tulane: 7.2, 2 TD, 4 INT); at receiver, Oran Singleton Jr. (Tulsa: 67 receiving yards a game, 3 TD) has the edge on Destyn Hill (Tulane: 49, 1 TD), facing the Tulane pass defense (59th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: Tulsa 57% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Tulsa win 5,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Tulsa may not
- Elo rating: worth about 5.8 points to Tulane in our ratings.
- Home field: Tulane play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Elo rating: Tulane rank 66th (1491), Tulsa 108th (1299) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Tulsa lose by 17 or more.
- Team matchup: where Tulane can push back. Their running game (28th of 138) meets the Tulsa run defense (88th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Johnnie Daniels (Tulane: 61 rushing yards a game, 6.4 a carry) has the edge on Damari Alston (Tulsa: 54, 4.3), facing the Tulsa run defense (88th of 138).
- Upset odds: Tulane win 4,190 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| TLSA | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 4-4 |
| 29.8 57 | Points per game | 22.5 107 |
| 24.4 67 | Points allowed | 25.4 79 |
| 6.7 31 | Yards per play | 6.5 42 |
| 5.3 34 | Yards per play allowed | 5.9 75 |
| +0.6 13 | Interception margin/game | -0.4 108 |
| 5.4% 81 | Sacks per dropback | 5.4% 81 |
| 1299 108 | Elo rating | 1491 66 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | 2025 Wk 5 | Tulane 31 @ Tulsa 14 | TULN |
| 2023-11-11 | 2023 Wk 11 | Tulsa 22 @ Tulane 24 | TULN |
| 2022-11-05 | 2022 Wk 10 | Tulane 27 @ Tulsa 13 | TULN |
| 2021-11-13 | 2021 Wk 11 | Tulsa 20 @ Tulane 13 | TLSA |
| 2020-11-20 | 2020 Wk 12 | Tulane 24 @ Tulsa 30 | TLSA |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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