Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | ARMY -5 | Same |
| Total | 48.5 | 48.8 |
| Moneyline | AF +160 ARMY -192 | AF +174 ARMY -174 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Army by 5, total 48.5.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Army can win
- Home field: Army play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Travel: Air Force come about 2,622 km (1,629 miles) for this one.
- Offense, yards per play: Army rank 64th (6.2), Air Force 130th (5.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Army can take advantage. Their running game (3rd of 138) meets the Air Force run defense (109th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Cale Hellums (Army: 6.1 yards per attempt, 3 TD, 2 INT) has the edge on Howard Fisher IV (Air Force: 4.0, 0 TD, 0 INT; filling in for Liam Szarka, out for the season).
- The betting market agrees: Army 63% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Army win 6,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Army may not
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Air Force rank 47th (7.1%), Army 113th (4.2%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Army lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Army rank 136th of 138 in passing, yards per dropback (4.1).
- Weak spot: Army rank 135th of 138 in defense, yards per play allowed (7.5).
- Team matchup: where Air Force can push back. Their running game (59th of 138) meets the Army run defense (122nd), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Army on paper, but quarterback Howard Fisher IV (36 yards, 0 TD; filling in for Liam Szarka, out for the season) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Air Force win 3,650 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| AF | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 5-3 |
| 29.2 62 | Points per game | 33.6 34 |
| 21.5 48 | Points allowed | 25.5 83 |
| 5.1 130 | Yards per play | 6.2 64 |
| 6.7 118 | Yards per play allowed | 7.5 135 |
| +0.1 58 | Interception margin/game | +0.0 73 |
| 7.1% 47 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 113 |
| 1455 78 | Elo rating | 1509 61 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | 2025 Wk 10 | Army 20 @ Air Force 17 | ARMY |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 Wk 10 | Air Force 3 @ Army 20 | ARMY |
| 2023-11-04 | 2023 Wk 10 | Army 23 @ Air Force 3 | ARMY |
| 2022-11-05 | 2022 Wk 10 | Air Force 13 @ Army 7 | AF |
| 2021-11-06 | 2021 Wk 10 | Army 21 @ Air Force 14 | ARMY |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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