Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | HAW -9.5 | Same |
| Total | 49.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | HAW -325 UTEP +260 | HAW -288 UTEP +288 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Hawai'i by 9.5, total 49.5.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Hawai'i can win
- Elo rating: worth about 16.2 points to Hawai'i in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Hawai'i +2.0, UTEP -18.0.
- Elo rating: Hawai'i rank 83rd (1418), UTEP 137th (969) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Hawai'i can take advantage. Their pass rush (95th of 138) meets the UTEP pass protection (138th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Kainoa Carvalho (Hawai'i: 50 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Kam Thomas (UTEP: 36, 0 TD), facing the UTEP pass defense (81st of 138).
- Simulation: Hawai'i win 7,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Hawai'i 74% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Hawai'i may not
- Travel: Hawai'i come about 5,188 km (3,222 miles) for this one.
- Home field: UTEP play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Hawai'i lose by 10 or more.
- Body clock: Hawai'i cross 3 time zones.
- Team matchup: where UTEP can push back. Their running game (53rd of 138) meets the Hawai'i run defense (113th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, EJ Colson (UTEP: 8.4 yards per attempt, 2 TD, 4 INT) has the edge on Micah Alejado (Hawai'i: 6.8, 9 TD, 6 INT); in the backfield, Raymond Moore III (UTEP: 69 rushing yards a game, 10.2 a carry) has the edge on Devon Rice (Hawai'i: 48, 4.7), facing the Hawai'i run defense (113th of 138).
- Upset odds: UTEP win 2,580 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| HAW | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 1-7 |
| 20.8 119 | Points per game | 14.1 138 |
| 24.5 69 | Points allowed | 36.5 133 |
| 5.4 123 | Yards per play | 5.8 94 |
| 6.6 113 | Yards per play allowed | 6.2 92 |
| +0.0 73 | Interception margin/game | -0.2 96 |
| 4.9% 95 | Sacks per dropback | 3.4% 127 |
| 1418 83 | Elo rating | 969 137 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-10-17 | 2004 Wk 8 | Hawai'i 20 @ UTEP 51 | UTEP |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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