- New Mexico AP #22 · Mountain West 4-0, 1st · 7-1 overall · W5
- Nevada Mountain West 2-2, 6th · 3-5 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNM -11.5 | Same |
| Total | 40.5 | 40.9 |
| Moneyline | UNM -470 NEV +360 | UNM -372 NEV +372 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : New Mexico by 11.5, total 40.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why New Mexico can win
- Elo rating: worth about 10.4 points to New Mexico in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: New Mexico rank 5th (+23.1), Nevada 88th (+0.4) of 138 FBS teams.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, New Mexico +7.0, Nevada -8.7.
- Team matchup: where New Mexico can take advantage. Their pass rush (7th of 138) meets the Nevada pass protection (57th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their running game (41st of 138) meets the Nevada run defense (64th): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Toa Faavae (New Mexico: 9.4 yards per attempt, 6 TD, 6 INT) has the edge on Carter Jones (Nevada: 7.7, 3 TD, 2 INT); off the edge, Darren Agu (New Mexico: 5 sacks) has the edge on Jeremy Naborne (Nevada: 3), facing the Nevada pass protection (57th of 138).
- Simulation: New Mexico win 7,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: New Mexico 81% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why New Mexico may not
- Home field: Nevada play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Nevada rank 57th (5.0%), New Mexico 134th (10.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, New Mexico lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: New Mexico rank 134th of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (10.5%).
- Team matchup: where Nevada can push back. Their pass rush (30th of 138) meets the New Mexico pass protection (134th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Dominic Kelley (Nevada: 73 rushing yards a game, 5.1 a carry) has the edge on Scottre Humphrey (New Mexico: 65, 4.8), facing the New Mexico run defense (13th of 138).
- Upset odds: Nevada win 2,120 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
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Side by side
| UNM | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 3-5 |
| 35.0 27 | Points per game | 23.0 102 |
| 11.9 1 | Points allowed | 22.6 55 |
| 6.1 73 | Yards per play | 5.3 125 |
| 5.1 18 | Yards per play allowed | 5.4 39 |
| +1.4 1 | Interception margin/game | -1.4 138 |
| 9.7% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 30 |
| 1679 36 | Elo rating | 1398 88 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 8 | Nevada 22 @ New Mexico 24 | UNM |
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 9 | New Mexico 24 @ Nevada 34 | NEV |
| 2020-11-14 | 2020 Wk 11 | Nevada 27 @ New Mexico 20 | NEV |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 10 | New Mexico 10 @ Nevada 21 | NEV |
| 2016-11-06 | 2016 Wk 10 | Nevada 26 @ New Mexico 35 | UNM |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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