- Northern Illinois Mountain West 0-4, 10th · 0-8 overall · L8
- San José State Mountain West 2-3, 7th · 4-5 overall · L2
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | SJSU -10 | Same |
| Total | 50.5 | 50.3 |
| Moneyline | NIU +300 SJSU -380 | NIU +297 SJSU -297 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : San José State by 10, total 50.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why San José State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 8.9 points to San José State in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, San José State -2.3, Northern Illinois -20.0.
- Home field: San José State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Team matchup: where San José State can take advantage. Their pass rush (13th of 138) meets the Northern Illinois pass protection (122nd), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their passing game (50th of 138) meets the Northern Illinois pass defense (94th): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Luke Weaver (San José State: 8.5 yards per attempt, 8 TD, 8 INT) has the edge on Taron Dickens (Northern Illinois: 7.0, 7 TD, 6 INT); off the edge, Jayland McGlothen (San José State: 5 sacks) has the edge on Avery Jones (Northern Illinois: 2), facing the Northern Illinois pass protection (122nd of 138).
- Simulation: San José State win 7,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: San José State 76% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why San José State may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, San José State lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: San José State rank 123rd of 138 in points per game (19.9).
- Weak spot: San José State rank 121st of 138 in running game, yards per carry (4.4).
- Weak spot: San José State rank 105th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards per game (3.6).
- Team matchup: Northern Illinois have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean San José State on paper, but quarterback Taron Dickens (1,633 yards, 7 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Northern Illinois win 2,520 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| NIU | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-8 | Record | 4-5 |
| 16.2 136 | Points per game | 19.9 123 |
| 37.6 136 | Points allowed | 22.3 54 |
| 5.7 104 | Yards per play | 6.0 85 |
| 6.7 117 | Yards per play allowed | 5.5 52 |
| +0.2 42 | Interception margin/game | +0.2 57 |
| 3.9% 121 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 13 |
| 1071 131 | Elo rating | 1353 97 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2004.
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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