Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNLV -7.5 | Same |
| Total | 46.5 | 46.7 |
| Moneyline | WYO +205 UNLV -250 | WYO +234 UNLV -234 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : UNLV by 7.5, total 46.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why UNLV can win
- Elo rating: worth about 3.3 points to UNLV in our ratings.
- Home field: UNLV play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Interception margin per game: UNLV rank 13th (+0.6), Wyoming 116th (-0.5) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where UNLV can take advantage. Their running game (38th of 138) meets the Wyoming run defense (114th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their pass rush (85th of 138) meets the Wyoming pass protection (130th): a chance to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Jackson Arnold (UNLV: 9.5 yards per attempt, 11 TD, 4 INT) has the edge on Tyler Hughes (Wyoming: 7.9, 4 TD, 7 INT); in the backfield, Jai'Den Thomas (UNLV: 81 rushing yards a game, 5.1 a carry) has the edge on Markell Holman (Wyoming: 53, 5.4), facing the Wyoming run defense (114th of 138).
- Simulation: UNLV win 7,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: UNLV 70% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why UNLV may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Wyoming +11.7, UNLV +1.0.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, UNLV lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: UNLV rank 126th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards allowed per game (5.1).
- Weak spot: UNLV rank 121st of 138 in run defense, yards per carry allowed (5.7).
- Team matchup: where Wyoming can push back. Their running game (15th of 138) meets the UNLV run defense (121st), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their pass rush (53rd of 138) meets the UNLV pass protection (116th): a chance to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean UNLV on paper, but quarterback Tyler Hughes (1,133 yards, 4 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Wyoming win 3,000 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| WYO | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 5-3 |
| 19.5 126 | Points per game | 25.0 90 |
| 20.0 33 | Points allowed | 23.8 61 |
| 6.4 46 | Yards per play | 6.9 25 |
| 5.4 42 | Yards per play allowed | 5.7 64 |
| -0.5 116 | Interception margin/game | +0.6 13 |
| 6.8% 53 | Sacks per dropback | 5.3% 85 |
| 1363 95 | Elo rating | 1483 70 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | 2025 Wk 6 | UNLV 31 @ Wyoming 17 | UNLV |
| 2023-11-11 | 2023 Wk 11 | Wyoming 14 @ UNLV 34 | UNLV |
| 2020-11-27 | 2020 Wk 13 | Wyoming 45 @ UNLV 14 | WYO |
| 2019-09-29 | 2019 Wk 5 | UNLV 17 @ Wyoming 53 | WYO |
| 2016-11-12 | 2016 Wk 11 | Wyoming 66 @ UNLV 69 | UNLV |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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