Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | OHIO -12.5 | Same |
| Total | 49.5 | 49.6 |
| Moneyline | OHIO -470 AKR +360 | OHIO -396 AKR +396 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Ohio by 12.5, total 49.5.
Your pick
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Our number.
Advantages Why Ohio can win
- Elo rating: worth about 20.7 points to Ohio in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Ohio +20.7, Akron -12.3.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 3.9 points to Ohio in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Ohio rank 52nd (+7.8), Akron 132nd (-13.8) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Ohio can take advantage. Their passing game (44th of 138) meets the Akron pass defense (132nd), so look for them to throw early and often. And their running game (48th of 138) meets the Akron run defense (135th): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Nick Poulos (Ohio: 9.5 yards per attempt, 5 TD, 0 INT) has the edge on Brayden Roggow (Akron: 7.1, 6 TD, 9 INT); off the edge, Ike Ackerman (Ohio: 3 sacks) has the edge on Cyrus Durham (Akron: 1), facing the Akron pass protection (88th of 138).
- Simulation: Ohio win 7,980 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Ohio may not
- Home field: Akron play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ohio lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Ohio rank 117th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards per game (3.2).
- Weak spot: Ohio rank 94th of 138 in pass rush, sacks per dropback (5.0%).
- Team matchup: Akron have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Jordan Gant (Akron: 73 rushing yards a game, 4.7 a carry) has the edge on Victor Rosa (Ohio: 45, 4.7), facing the Ohio run defense (70th of 138).
- Upset odds: Akron win 2,020 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
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Side by side
| OHIO | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 1-7 |
| 29.6 59 | Points per game | 19.0 127 |
| 21.9 50 | Points allowed | 32.8 128 |
| 6.3 54 | Yards per play | 5.5 118 |
| 5.9 73 | Yards per play allowed | 7.7 137 |
| +0.1 58 | Interception margin/game | -0.9 133 |
| 5.0% 94 | Sacks per dropback | 1.5% 138 |
| 1427 82 | Elo rating | 849 138 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | 2024 Wk 5 | Akron 10 @ Ohio 30 | OHIO |
| 2023-11-24 | 2023 Wk 13 | Ohio 25 @ Akron 14 | OHIO |
| 2022-10-08 | 2022 Wk 6 | Akron 34 @ Ohio 55 | OHIO |
| 2021-10-02 | 2021 Wk 5 | Ohio 34 @ Akron 17 | OHIO |
| 2020-11-11 | 2020 Wk 11 | Akron 10 @ Ohio 24 | OHIO |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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