- Buffalo MAC 3-1, 3rd · 5-3 overall · W3
- Miami (OH) MAC 3-1, 5th · 5-3 overall · W3
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | M-OH -6.5 | Same |
| Total | 44.5 | 44.7 |
| Moneyline | BUF +195 M-OH -238 | BUF +206 M-OH -206 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Miami (OH) by 6.5, total 44.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Miami (OH) can win
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 3.5 points to Miami (OH) in our ratings.
- Offense, yards per play: Miami (OH) rank 24th (6.9), Buffalo 138th (4.6) of 138 FBS teams.
- Home field: Miami (OH) play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Team matchup: where Miami (OH) can take advantage. Their passing game (22nd of 138) meets the Buffalo pass defense (133rd), so look for them to throw early and often. And their big-play offense (27th of 138) meets the Buffalo defense against big plays (68th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, David McComb (Miami (OH): 11.4 yards per attempt, 6 TD, 1 INT) has the edge on Jason Wright (Buffalo: 5.6, 5 TD, 4 INT); off the edge, Grant Lyons (Miami (OH): 3 sacks) has the edge on Cornell Evans (Buffalo: 1), facing the Buffalo pass protection (80th of 138).
- Simulation: Miami (OH) win 6,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Miami (OH) 68% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Miami (OH) may not
- Elo rating: worth about 4.4 points to Buffalo in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Miami (OH) lose by 13 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Buffalo rank 80th (6.0%), Miami (OH) 126th (9.2%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: Miami (OH) rank 126th of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.2%).
- Team matchup: where Buffalo can push back. Their pass rush (104th of 138) meets the Miami (OH) pass protection (126th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Messiah Burch (Buffalo: 105 rushing yards a game, 5.6 a carry) has the edge on Rodney Nelson (Miami (OH): 48, 5.1), facing the Miami (OH) run defense (26th of 138).
- Upset odds: Buffalo win 3,270 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| BUF | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 5-3 |
| 22.6 106 | Points per game | 27.0 75 |
| 25.4 79 | Points allowed | 25.8 85 |
| 4.6 138 | Yards per play | 6.9 24 |
| 6.8 123 | Yards per play allowed | 5.8 68 |
| -0.1 93 | Interception margin/game | +0.0 73 |
| 4.5% 104 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 108 |
| 1363 95 | Elo rating | 1258 113 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | 2025 Wk 13 | Miami (OH) 37 @ Buffalo 20 | M-OH |
| 2023-11-16 | 2023 Wk 12 | Buffalo 10 @ Miami (OH) 23 | M-OH |
| 2022-10-01 | 2022 Wk 5 | Miami (OH) 20 @ Buffalo 24 | BUF |
| 2021-11-10 | 2021 Wk 11 | Buffalo 18 @ Miami (OH) 45 | M-OH |
| 2020-11-11 | 2020 Wk 11 | Miami (OH) 10 @ Buffalo 42 | BUF |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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