Ball State @ Massachusetts
College football 2026 · Week 10 · · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
- Ball State MAC 2-2, 7th · 3-5 overall · W2
- Massachusetts MAC 1-3, 10th · 4-4 overall · L4
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | MASS -3.5 | Same |
| Total | 48.5 | 48.6 |
| Moneyline | BALL +136 MASS -162 | BALL +150 MASS -150 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Massachusetts by 3.5, total 48.5.
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Our number.
Advantages Why Massachusetts can win
- Point differential per game: Massachusetts rank 62nd (+5.4), Ball State 130th (-13.2) of 138 FBS teams.
- Home field: Massachusetts play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.1 points to Massachusetts in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where Massachusetts can take advantage. Their running game (71st of 138) meets the Ball State run defense (120th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, William Watson III (Massachusetts: 7.7 yards per attempt, 8 TD, 2 INT) has the edge on Keldric Luster (Ball State: 6.4, 9 TD, 6 INT); off the edge, William Depaepe (Massachusetts: 2 sacks) has the edge on Ameir Glenn (Ball State: 1), facing the Ball State pass protection (36th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: Massachusetts 60% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Massachusetts win 6,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Massachusetts may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Massachusetts lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: Massachusetts rank 128th of 138 in Elo rating (1122).
- Weak spot: Massachusetts rank 111th of 138 in passing, yards per dropback (6.3).
- Weak spot: Massachusetts rank 100th of 138 in offense, yards per play (5.7).
- Team matchup: a strength Massachusetts may not get to use. Their pass rush (37th of 138) meets the Ball State pass protection (36th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Massachusetts on paper, but quarterback Keldric Luster (1,360 yards, 9 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Ball State win 3,990 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| BALL | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 4-4 |
| 22.0 108 | Points per game | 26.5 83 |
| 35.2 131 | Points allowed | 21.1 42 |
| 5.3 126 | Yards per play | 5.7 100 |
| 7.2 132 | Yards per play allowed | 5.4 37 |
| -0.2 96 | Interception margin/game | +0.4 35 |
| 6.1% 67 | Sacks per dropback | 7.6% 37 |
| 1098 130 | Elo rating | 1122 128 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-31 | 2015 Wk 9 | Massachusetts 10 @ Ball State 20 | BALL |
| 2014-11-13 | 2014 Wk 12 | Ball State 10 @ Massachusetts 24 | MASS |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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