- Central Michigan MAC 1-3, 11th · 3-5 overall · L3
- Eastern Michigan MAC 3-2, 6th · 4-5 overall · L2
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | EMU -1.5 | Same |
| Total | 43.5 | 43.6 |
| Moneyline | CMU -102 EMU -118 | CMU +118 EMU -118 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Eastern Michigan by 1.5, total 43.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Eastern Michigan can win
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Eastern Michigan rank 33rd (3.9%), Central Michigan 109th (7.7%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Field goal percentage: Eastern Michigan rank 37th (83.3%), Central Michigan 96th (66.7%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Strength: Eastern Michigan rank 33rd of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (3.9%).
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Eastern Michigan. The nearest thing to one: their pass rush (96th of 138) meets the Central Michigan pass protection (109th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Amareon Blue (Eastern Michigan: 45 rushing yards a game, 5.2 a carry) has the edge on Jayden Clerveaux (Central Michigan: 34, 5.4), facing the Central Michigan run defense (94th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: Eastern Michigan 52% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Eastern Michigan win 5,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Eastern Michigan may not
- Interception margin per game: Central Michigan rank 35th (+0.4), Eastern Michigan 84th (-0.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.0 points to Central Michigan in our ratings.
- Elo rating: worth about 1.0 points to Central Michigan in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Eastern Michigan lose by 17 or more.
- Team matchup: Central Michigan have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Jadyn Glasser (Central Michigan: 6.3 yards per attempt, 2 TD, 3 INT; filling in for Angel H Flores, missed the last game) has the edge on Brogan McCaughey (Eastern Michigan: 5.7, 1 TD, 1 INT; filling in for Noah Kim, missed the last game); off the edge, Jaxon Cherry (Central Michigan: 2 sacks) has the edge on Carter Evans, Quincy Byas (Eastern Michigan: 1), facing the Eastern Michigan pass protection (33rd of 138).
- Upset odds: Central Michigan win 4,580 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
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Side by side
| CMU | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 4-5 |
| 17.9 131 | Points per game | 21.3 114 |
| 25.9 87 | Points allowed | 25.7 84 |
| 4.8 137 | Yards per play | 4.9 133 |
| 6.3 96 | Yards per play allowed | 6.8 120 |
| +0.4 35 | Interception margin/game | -0.1 84 |
| 6.7% 54 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 96 |
| 1224 119 | Elo rating | 1219 120 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | 2025 Wk 5 | Eastern Michigan 13 @ Central Michigan 24 | CMU |
| 2024-10-19 | 2024 Wk 8 | Central Michigan 34 @ Eastern Michigan 38 | EMU |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023 Wk 5 | Eastern Michigan 23 @ Central Michigan 26 | CMU |
| 2022-11-25 | 2022 Wk 13 | Central Michigan 19 @ Eastern Michigan 38 | EMU |
| 2021-11-26 | 2021 Wk 13 | Eastern Michigan 10 @ Central Michigan 31 | CMU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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