- Toledo MAC 3-1, 4th · 6-2 overall · W2
- Sacramento State MAC 1-5, 12th · 2-7 overall · W1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | TOL -27.5 | Same |
| Total | 52.5 | 52.3 |
| Moneyline | TOL -4500 SAC +1700 | TOL -2930 SAC +2930 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Toledo by 27.5, total 52.5.
Your pick
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Our number.
Advantages Why Toledo can win
- Elo rating: worth about 18.7 points to Toledo in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Toledo rank 37th (+12.0), Sacramento State 131st (-13.3) of 138 FBS teams.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 3.7 points to Toledo in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where Toledo can take advantage. Their passing game (8th of 138) meets the Sacramento State pass defense (60th), so look for them to throw early and often. And their big-play offense (39th of 138) meets the Sacramento State defense against big plays (90th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, John Alan Richter (Toledo: 9.7 yards per attempt, 16 TD, 2 INT) has the edge on Jackson Sharman (Sacramento State: 6.9, 7 TD, 6 INT); in the backfield, CJ Miller (Toledo: 76 rushing yards a game, 5.6 a carry) has the edge on Isaiah Ene (Sacramento State: 46, 5.3), facing the Sacramento State run defense (98th of 138).
- Simulation: Toledo win 9,670 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Toledo 95% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Toledo may not
- Home field: Sacramento State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Travel: Toledo come about 3,208 km (1,992 miles) for this one.
- Body clock: Toledo cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: Toledo rank 96th of 138 in field goal percentage (66.7%).
- Team matchup: Sacramento State have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Toledo on paper, but quarterback Jackson Sharman (1,387 yards, 7 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Sacramento State win 330 of 10,000 simulations (3%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 3 times in 100.
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Side by side
| TOL | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 2-7 |
| 37.4 16 | Points per game | 17.0 133 |
| 25.4 79 | Points allowed | 30.3 114 |
| 7.2 15 | Yards per play | 5.4 121 |
| 5.0 15 | Yards per play allowed | 5.9 76 |
| +0.4 35 | Interception margin/game | -0.1 86 |
| 7.2% 46 | Sacks per dropback | 2.2% 136 |
| 1554 57 | Elo rating | 1034 133 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2004.
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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