- Georgia State Sun Belt - East 1-3, 6th · 4-4 overall · L3
- App State Sun Belt - East 2-2, 3rd · 5-3 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | APP -3.5 | Same |
| Total | 57.5 | 57.3 |
| Moneyline | GAST +136 APP -162 | GAST +148 APP -148 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : App State by 3.5, total 57.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why App State can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, App State -3.3, Georgia State -14.7.
- Home field: App State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Interception margin per game: App State rank 9th (+0.8), Georgia State 116th (-0.5) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where App State can take advantage. Their big-play offense (24th of 138) meets the Georgia State defense against big plays (118th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Malachi Singleton (App State: 8.4 yards per attempt, 7 TD, 3 INT) has the edge on Ayden Pereira (Georgia State: 7.0, 3 TD, 3 INT; filling in for Cameran Brown, missed the last game); at receiver, Sam Pickett III (App State: 70 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Rodshaun Dorsey (Georgia State: 57, 0 TD), facing the Georgia State pass defense (100th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: App State 61% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: App State win 5,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why App State may not
- Elo rating: worth about 2.6 points to Georgia State in our ratings.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Georgia State rank 19th (8.6%), App State 130th (3.2%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, App State lose by 17 or more.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 0.9 points to Georgia State in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where Georgia State can push back. Their passing game (84th of 138) meets the App State pass defense (107th), so look for them to throw early and often. And their big-play offense (27th of 138) meets the App State defense against big plays (50th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: Off the edge, Xavier Esquillen (Georgia State: 5 sacks) has the edge on Caleb Sandstrom (App State: 3), facing the App State pass protection (41st of 138).
- Upset odds: Georgia State win 4,040 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| GAST | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 5-3 |
| 33.9 32 | Points per game | 26.8 80 |
| 26.6 92 | Points allowed | 22.6 55 |
| 6.4 51 | Yards per play | 5.9 88 |
| 6.4 102 | Yards per play allowed | 5.9 72 |
| -0.5 116 | Interception margin/game | +0.8 9 |
| 8.6% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 130 |
| 1335 102 | Elo rating | 1282 111 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | 2025 Wk 7 | App State 41 @ Georgia State 20 | APP |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 Wk 9 | Georgia State 26 @ App State 33 | APP |
| 2023-11-11 | 2023 Wk 11 | App State 42 @ Georgia State 14 | APP |
| 2022-10-19 | 2022 Wk 8 | Georgia State 17 @ App State 42 | APP |
| 2021-10-02 | 2021 Wk 5 | App State 45 @ Georgia State 16 | APP |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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