- UL Monroe Sun Belt - West 1-3, 7th · 1-7 overall · L1
- Arkansas State Sun Belt - West 2-2, 4th · 4-4 overall · W2
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | ARST -14.5 | Same |
| Total | 52.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | ULM +490 ARST -675 | ULM +513 ARST -513 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Arkansas State by 14.5, total 52.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Arkansas State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 10.3 points to Arkansas State in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Arkansas State +3.0, UL Monroe -10.3.
- Home field: Arkansas State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Team matchup: where Arkansas State can take advantage. Their big-play offense (39th of 138) meets the UL Monroe defense against big plays (126th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their running game (88th of 138) meets the UL Monroe run defense (124th): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Jaylen Bonelli (Arkansas State: 56 receiving yards a game, 3 TD) has the edge on Marcellus Jackson (UL Monroe: 46, 0 TD), facing the UL Monroe pass defense (49th of 138).
- Simulation: Arkansas State win 8,370 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Arkansas State 84% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Arkansas State may not
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.2 points to UL Monroe in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Arkansas State lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: Arkansas State rank 133rd of 138 in pass rush, sacks per dropback (2.9%).
- Weak spot: Arkansas State rank 131st of 138 in pass defense, yards per dropback allowed (9.0).
- Team matchup: where UL Monroe can push back. Their passing game (46th of 138) meets the Arkansas State pass defense (131st), so look for them to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Aidan Armenta (UL Monroe: 9.0 yards per attempt, 10 TD, 3 INT) has the edge on Trey Owens (Arkansas State: 8.4, 10 TD, 6 INT).
- Upset odds: UL Monroe win 1,630 of 10,000 simulations (16%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
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Side by side
| ULM | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 4-4 |
| 20.2 122 | Points per game | 28.8 69 |
| 37.0 134 | Points allowed | 27.2 97 |
| 5.9 89 | Yards per play | 6.1 71 |
| 6.0 81 | Yards per play allowed | 6.9 126 |
| -0.4 108 | Interception margin/game | +0.4 35 |
| 5.1% 92 | Sacks per dropback | 2.9% 133 |
| 1008 135 | Elo rating | 1331 103 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | 2025 Wk 5 | Arkansas State 16 @ UL Monroe 28 | ULM |
| 2024-11-23 | 2024 Wk 13 | UL Monroe 21 @ Arkansas State 28 | ARST |
| 2023-10-28 | 2023 Wk 9 | Arkansas State 34 @ UL Monroe 24 | ARST |
| 2022-10-01 | 2022 Wk 5 | UL Monroe 28 @ Arkansas State 45 | ARST |
| 2021-11-13 | 2021 Wk 11 | Arkansas State 27 @ UL Monroe 24 | ARST |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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