- James Madison Sun Belt - East 4-2, 2nd · 7-2 overall · L2
- Southern Miss Sun Belt - West 2-2, 6th · 3-5 overall · W2
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | JMU -14.5 | Same |
| Total | 55.5 | 55.4 |
| Moneyline | JMU -600 USM +440 | JMU -493 USM +493 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : James Madison by 14.5, total 55.5.
Your pick
Picks lock at kickoff. Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why James Madison can win
- Elo rating: worth about 20.3 points to James Madison in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: James Madison rank 10th (+20.2), Southern Miss 106th (-4.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Elo rating: James Madison rank 20th (1792), Southern Miss 118th (1225) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where James Madison can take advantage. Their running game (30th of 138) meets the Southern Miss run defense (115th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their big-play offense (39th of 138) meets the Southern Miss defense against big plays (90th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Camden Coleman (James Madison: 7.8 yards per attempt, 15 TD, 4 INT) has the edge on Landy Lyddy (Southern Miss: 7.0, 7 TD, 4 INT).
- Simulation: James Madison win 8,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: James Madison 84% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why James Madison may not
- Home field: Southern Miss play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, James Madison lose by 4 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Southern Miss rank 12th (8.9%), James Madison 41st (7.3%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.
- Team matchup: where Southern Miss can push back. Their big-play offense (33rd of 138) meets the James Madison defense against big plays (58th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Steven Robinson (Southern Miss: 91 rushing yards a game, 5.1 a carry) has the edge on Seth Cromwell (James Madison: 34, 4.8; filling in for George Pettaway, missed the last game), facing the James Madison run defense (33rd of 138); at receiver, Mario Sanders II (Southern Miss: 76 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Corey Scott (James Madison: 43, 1 TD), facing the James Madison pass defense (67th of 138).
- Upset odds: Southern Miss win 1,690 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
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Side by side
| JMU | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | Record | 3-5 |
| 39.1 10 | Points per game | 26.9 77 |
| 18.9 29 | Points allowed | 31.0 118 |
| 6.4 45 | Yards per play | 6.1 72 |
| 5.5 53 | Yards per play allowed | 5.9 77 |
| +0.1 72 | Interception margin/game | -0.5 116 |
| 7.3% 41 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 12 |
| 1792 20 | Elo rating | 1225 118 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 Wk 9 | Southern Miss 15 @ James Madison 32 | JMU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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