- South Alabama Sun Belt - West 2-2, 3rd · 4-4 overall · L2
- Louisiana Sun Belt - West 2-2, 2nd · 5-3 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL -7.5 | Same |
| Total | 57.5 | 57.4 |
| Moneyline | USA +215 UL -265 | USA +219 UL -219 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Louisiana by 7.5, total 57.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Louisiana can win
- Elo rating: worth about 5.2 points to Louisiana in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Louisiana +7.3, South Alabama -5.0.
- Home field: Louisiana play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Team matchup: where Louisiana can take advantage. Their big-play offense (69th of 138) meets the South Alabama defense against big plays (131st), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their running game (93rd of 138) meets the South Alabama run defense (128th): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: no key position favors Louisiana, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with quarterback D'Wayne' Winfield (1,465 yards, 6 TD) leading the way.
- Simulation: Louisiana win 6,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Louisiana 70% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Louisiana may not
- Offense, yards per play: South Alabama rank 48th (6.4), Louisiana 112th (5.6) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Louisiana lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: Louisiana rank 112th of 138 in offense, yards per play (5.6).
- Weak spot: Louisiana rank 111th of 138 in pass rush, sacks per dropback (4.3%).
- Team matchup: where South Alabama can push back. Their passing game (21st of 138) meets the Louisiana pass defense (42nd), so look for them to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Jared Hollins (South Alabama: 10.0 yards per attempt, 8 TD, 4 INT) has the edge on D'Wayne' Winfield (Louisiana: 7.8, 6 TD, 4 INT); in the backfield, Keenan Phillips (South Alabama: 72 rushing yards a game, 5.4 a carry) has the edge on JJ Garner (Louisiana: 32, 5.3), facing the Louisiana run defense (77th of 138).
- Upset odds: South Alabama win 3,140 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| USA | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 5-3 |
| 33.2 38 | Points per game | 30.1 56 |
| 32.8 128 | Points allowed | 21.2 45 |
| 6.4 48 | Yards per play | 5.6 112 |
| 6.8 119 | Yards per play allowed | 5.6 55 |
| +0.2 42 | Interception margin/game | +0.1 58 |
| 4.8% 98 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 111 |
| 1320 104 | Elo rating | 1494 64 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | 2025 Wk 10 | Louisiana 31 @ South Alabama 22 | UL |
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 12 | South Alabama 24 @ Louisiana 22 | USA |
| 2023-10-28 | 2023 Wk 9 | Louisiana 33 @ South Alabama 20 | UL |
| 2022-10-01 | 2022 Wk 5 | South Alabama 20 @ Louisiana 17 | USA |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 5 | Louisiana 20 @ South Alabama 18 | UL |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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